Wednesday, July 30, 2008

A Dollar

What is a U.S. dollar worth?

Everyone probably immediately thinks, "not as much as it used to be worth!" And, of course that's correct.

But what was it worth back when the Republic was young and vibrant? According to Wikipedia a dollar was originally (between 1792 and 1873) redeemable from the United States Treasury for 371.25 grains of silver.

So, what exactly is a grain? Again according to Wikipedia a grain is a measure based on the mass of a "single seed of a typical cereal," such as wheat of barley. In modern times a grain is fixed as an amount equal to about 64.8 milligrams.

In fact when I was a child I had paper dollar bills that bore the legend "silver certificate," meaning I could cash them in at any bank for an ounce of silver. So as recently as the 60s an ounce of silver equated to a dollar. As of this writing I can buy an ounce of silver for $17.44.

Thus, in the past forty years, by my estimate the purchasing power of a dollar measured in the quantity of silver it will buy is about seventeen and one half times less than it was.

So, your initial reaction was accurate and a dollar really isn't worth what it used to be worth.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Who am I and why am I here?

When Ross Perot's running mate Admiral James Stockdale asked that question in his opening statement during the 1992 Vice Presidential Debate he was portrayed as a dunce. It was the effective end of his candidacy, leading to skits on Saturday Night Live and political oblivion.

But when you back off and really think about it, those questions are really the core issues. And the answers matter--not just for political candidates but for each of us.

So, to turn the question around I ask the following question.

Just who exactly are you?

And, why are you here?

I'd be very interested to know your answers to those questions. I'm even more interested to know if you know the answers.

Monday, July 28, 2008

The Good Idea Test and Wellness Tokens

How do you know if an idea is really good?

We all hear lots of ideas. Some are obviously bad like those inspiring the Darwin Awards each year. Those ideas are usually fatal to the poor soul who acted on them. If you aren't familiar with these awards, visit http://www.darwinawards.com/ where a record of 746 "Enterprising Demises" is kept. Obviously any idea that kills you probably isn't a good one.

However, the relavant merits of most idea aren't that obvious.

How can we quickly evaluate whether or not an idea we hear is a good one? I have a simple rule. In my experience, an idea is likely to be a good one if my initial reaction to the new idea is, "Gee, I wish I'd thought of that!" This is my version of the "Blink Test," named after the Malcolm Gladwell book "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking."

Over the years this test has consistently proven an accurate indicator of the relative merit of the idea. I have learned if the new idea has to be sold to me and I buy it, I'm usually sorry in the long run.

When I first heard about Wellness Tokens that reward people for behaviors that keep them healthy, my initial "Blink Test" response was, "Why didn't I think of that?"

Before I tell you about Wellness Tokens, let's explore the problems of our current system of medical care.

Consider how our current system works, or doesn't depending on your pont of view. We are basically ignored until we get sick or hurt. Then herioc measures are undertaken, massive quantities of expensive drugs are prescribed and everything possible is done to put Humpty Dumpty together again. But the odds are that once we are sick enough to need the Doctors, Hospitals and drugs we will never be quite the same again regardless of the quality of care we receive. Although lip service is paid to the idea of prevention, the efforts are usually half hearted and inneffective. Too often prevention is focused on using fear to scare the hell out of us, which causes most of us to simply retreat into denial rather than change our behaviors.

The medical establishment (Think: AMA, hospitals, health insurance companies and pharmaceuticals companies.) have created a cozy little system that tends to discourage or even exclude alternatives to their put Humpty Dumpty back together model. And of course all the financial incentives are on the side of treatment/cure rather than prevention/wellness. That is all well and good for the medical establishment; however, should you or I fall into their cozy little system we had best have great insurance or a good bankruptcy lawyer.

In other words our system isn't a system of health care at all, it's a system of medical care. Until you need to cure a disease, heal a trauma or deal with the symptoms of age--so long as you are healthy--you really aren't a suitable candidate for medical care. And, relatively little or no attention is paid to helping us stay healthy and thus avoid the need for medical care.

So, with that background, what exactly is a Wellness Token and why am I promoting it?

This good idea was initially published in 2006 by a Belgian economist named Bernard Lietaer in an article titled "Wellness Tokens: A Currency That Promotes Preventive Care."

In his original paper Lietaer begins by describing the problem and pointing out the difference between medical care and health or wellness care.

Lietaer describes the importance of financial incentive in determining the focus of care. For example until the late 19th Century Chinese Doctors were compensated by patients so long as the patient maintained good health and if the patient became ill the Doctor paid the patient. Imagine that for a moment. The financial incentive in pre 20th Century China was wellness and prevention.

The Wellness Token, according to Lietaer, is designed to emphasize the focus on three areas: wellness, prevention and holistic health care rather than on after the fact medical care. Wellness Tokens would focus in a manner familiar to anyone who has ever participated in a frequent flyer program. Tokens would be earned in two ways:

  • Providing non-medical help to the elderly, handicapped and folks who need chronic care; and,
  • Participating in specifically qualified preventitive health programs (For example: obesity reduction programs, educational programs, fitness programs, etc.).

Lietaer writes that Wellness Tokens could be redeemed in part for other goods and services such as preventive therapies, discounts for purchases of healthy foods, fitness programs and such. For example, according to Lietaer, the Elderplan Insurance Company of Brooklyn, NY accepts alternative currency for up to 25% of insurance premiums for elderly customers.

After reading all of that is there any doubt that the Wellness Token conceived by Bernard Lietaer passes my "Blink Test?" Although I didn't think of it, I can at least write about it and introce you to the concept!

Friday, July 25, 2008

The Wisdom of the Prophet

The scribe Gerard Baker, US Editor and Assistant Editor of The Times of London, wrote the report you can find at the link below and verily I say unto you this is the most entertaining political satire that I have read this millennium. The scribe's missive is titled:

"He ventured forth to bring light to the world!

In which missive the scribe describes how, "The anointed one' pilgrimage to the Holy Land is a miracle in action-and a blessing to all his faithful followers!"

I invite you to click on the following link and enjoy the read:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4392846.ece

You might actually find political enlightenment as you ponder the scribe's words.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Millions and Billions and Trillions

What’s the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion?

In the last posting on this blog lots of big numbers got tossed around. How can someone grasp a number like $77 trillion or even one trillion dollars for that matter?

In a straight forward mathematical context, one thousand multiplied by one thousand equals one million. And a million multiplied by one thousand equals one billion. While a billion times one thousand equals one trillion.

It might be easier to grasp the order of magnitude of these differences if you think of it this way. If a million dollars equates to a single inch, then 1,000 inches or 83.33 feet equates to a billion dollars. And, 1,000 billions equals a trillion dollars, which equates to 15.78 miles. On your next long walk or short car ride, this will help you put the United States’ debt crises into better perspective.

The more we understand the more we appreciate the magnitude of the problem.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

The Times They Are a-Changin'

When Bob Dylan wrote the words "The times they are a-changin'," he was of course writing about the cultural mega shifts of the sixties. But these words are more applicable today than most of us realize. However, the application has shifted from the forty+ year culture war to the economy.

Why?

Because the United States' economy is about to undergo huge changes due to three overlapping factors:
  • Rising inflation;
  • The long term continued decline of the dollar; and,
  • Entitlement reform.

What do these changes mean? How will they effect each of us? What personal decisions provide the most protection, the lowest risk and the greatest opportunity?

In ancient time inflation usually involved monarchs shaving coins or dilution the precious metals from which those coins were cast. Nowadays, it's much easier because the United States has delegated management of its money to the Federal Reserve (FED), a privately owned bank. The FED can issue money at will with a few computer key strokes.

What does this mean?

It means that the purchasing power of a dollar today is about the same (actually a bit less) than the purchasing power of a nickel back in 1914. 1914 is about the time the U.S. monetary system was privatized and turned over the FED. The same can be said for the Euro, the Yen, British Pounds and other paper currencies around the world. Interestingly the purchasing power of gold in the past 94 years is virtually unchanged. According to the World Gold Council, no paper currency (FIAT currency) has existed longer than a human lifespan and the Federal Reserve Dollar is already a Methuselah at 94 years. I guess we're lucky life expectancy has been climbing.

Why would the FED allow this to happen?

Because the crushing pressure of debt service on the $40 trillion to $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities of Social Security, Medicare, Pensions, the "on budget" National debt, business debt, consumer debt and other costs such as the Iraq war makes it easier to repay that debt with cheaper inflated dollars. Our national policies and spendthrift politicians are debasing the dollar.

However, that's not the whole story. The dollar is also under inflationary pressure because of rising commodity costs. The people of China, India and Brazil all aspire to the "American lifestyle." Energy, metals, food and transportation are becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive.

The situation is unsustainable, eventually forcing whoever serves as President and in Congress to act. What can they do? There are only four alternatives: raise taxes, cut benefits, borrow more or inflate the currency in cooperation with the FED. At the rate the United States economy is deteriorating borrowing may not be an option much longer. Raising taxes is never a popular alternative. And cutting Medicare and/or Social Security benefits is rightfully called the "third rail" of American politics. It's not good for the proverbial political career to take expected benefits away from the electorate.

Regardless of how bad the situation may become, the questions remain about how best to deal with it personally. Obviously it is impossible to offer specific management or investment advice that means anything to you in this post. But in general three observations can be made and a couple of questions can be suggested for you to consider during your next meeting with your investment advisor.

The initial observation is: Although it's clear that something has got to give in the United States when it comes to entitlement reform, don't bet that reform will solve issues confronting successful people. Generally it's easier for politicians to adopt the "Robin Hood" approach and take from the deep pockets to give to the poor and middle class. If you work in a profession (law, medicine, architecture, investment banking), own your own business, or make more than $150,000 a year your pockets are perceived to be deep. You might plan accordingly to protect your assets, your income stream. Remember the old truism: "There is no limit to the good that do-goodees will do with other people's money.

The second observation is: Inflation in the United States is likely to become worse as time goes on. It is simply irresistible for politicians and bankers to avoid paying the price for their past sins as long as possible by using cheaper dollars to pay off old debt. Additionally, every time the FED encounters a financial crises its knee jerk reaction is to soften the blow by injection huge amounts of money into circulation to maintain liquidity. The broadsest measure of money is known as M3 and it's been growing at an annual rate of about 14%. That number is harder to pin down because in March of 2006 the FED decided to stop reporting M3. I suppose it became something of an embarrassment. In 2008 the FED has continued its practice of bailing out the economy by injecting vast amounts of cash for such worthy efforts as the Bear Stearns, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac "bailouts." In a couple of years Medicare will begin to experience a huge cash flow crunch and one must wonder at whether even the FED can bail out that entitlement. Then in 2018 Social Security will experience its own cash crises.

The final observation is: The dollar is probably about to stabilize at least in the short term. The dollar will probably reach equilibrium at least relative to the Euro because the the Euro is beset by generally unrecognized structural problems such as unsustainable entitlement and tax policies that are actually worse than those facing the dollar. Asian countries artificially maintain cheap currencies relative to real dollar exchange values to facilitate exports to the United States. If those policies change due to the perceived credit risk of American debt and/or the increased ability of Indians, Brazilians and Chinese to consume their output, then all bets are off and the dollar could go into free fall.

Here are a couple of starter questions that you might want to consider asking when you next meet your investment advisor:

  • First, with Medicare set to go cash flow negative in 2011 according to the Trustees Report issued last spring, does it make sense to pour a lot of capital into your business? Since medical care is such a huge part of our economy this applies across the board, but especially if you are in the medical professions?
  • Second, with the upward pressure on commodities and downward pressure on the dollar does it make sense to increase the percentage of retirement portfolio invested in commodities, precious metals and companies that provide those, while seeking instruments in other currencies?

One final word of caution: However tempting it might be to give up the day job and invest in commodities, currency or anything else full time, it is strongly advised not to attempt this at home. Investment advisers who do this for a living may cost some management fees, but that is a small price to pay for avoiding undue and unknown risks in areas about which you have too little knowledge to even identify those risks.

Although the situation appears critical, a well prepared and fully informed investor can prosper even in the worst of times. It's time to do your homework, consult with your investment advisor and devise a prudent strategy to preserve your capital! "The times they are a-changin'!"

Monday, July 21, 2008

WARNING:

Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency or any other agency, may have read your email, listened to your phone conversations and read this BLOG without warning, warrant or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legilsative oversight. You have neither recourse nor protection, save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.


Thanks for this to Margrit.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

The Invisible Hand

Al Gore recently made news saying within ten years non carbon sources should provide all electricity generation in the United States. That would be a laudable outcome. Of course it won't happen unless there is a government mandate. Mr. Gore obviously has no problem with government making these decisions. But, candidly, that isn't the way the world really works. How do we know?

We know because centralized decision making has failed over and over. The grand experiments with state control of the economy failed repeatedly, most notably in the former USSR and the People's Republic of China. In fact the Chinese ecnomic miracle was made possible by Comrade Deng's decision to embrace decentralized economic decision making a few decades ago.

Other less well known failures of centralized economic decision making abound, featuring "deciders" such as the despot de jure of various third world countries as well as World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or Fannie Mae.

But what is the alternative?

Clearly, given a chance people will make the best economic decisions they can. Eventually they do the right thing and positive unintended consequences result for all of us.

Today we have two examples of this phenomena reported in the Washington Post. One is an effort by baseball, and other pro sports to "go green." (See: "Green Becomes the Official Color of Baseball" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/) Another describes an economic phenomena resulting in 10% of electric power in Texas now coming from wind energy. (See: "The Aswer's In The Wind--and Sun" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/)

These examples required zero government intervention or interference. People and corporations are following their elightened self interest; simply doing well by doing good.

Back in 1776 at the same time as the American experiement inspired by self interest began exploring a new theory of individual sovereignty in the "Declaration of Independence," a Scottsman named Adam Smith wrote "The Wealth of Nations." In it he predicted that "the invisible hand" would motivate the exact sort of outcomes as the Washington Post reported in today's paper.

I wonder how the baseball teams and wind generation companies managed without Al Gore, Congress and whoever becomes President telling them what to do.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

The Way Things Are

Not good, that’s the way things are. But, things are not so bad either. Things could be a lot worse. If you are reading this a mile wide asteroid probably has not struck us. Things could be a whole lot worse.

The grass still grows. The sky is blue. The wind blows. People fall in and out of love, or at least lust. There is food to eat and water to drink. Most of us are clothed and housed. The television can be ignored mostly. We have music and movies and books and sports and the Internet to entertain us. Our children are above average. Our spouses and significant others still speak to us for the most part.

Of course the politicians still lie. There is crime and too many people are locked up for things that only harm themselves. Taxes are high. The money isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on and can’t be trusted. People die. But, in the grand scheme of things how much does any of that really matter to most of us.

If any of it really matters to you, get a life. Enjoy a good meal, listen to some good music and chill out.

Why ask why? Go ahead and order a Bud and forget about it.

That’s right, ignore the politicians. Live your life here and now. Tell the truth and be truthful. Pay the taxes you can’t avoid. Put your paper money into real assets. Laugh a little, hopefully a lot. Chill out. Ignore the politicians.

It is time to launch the Second American Revolution.

This Revolution isn’t to be fought with guns and bombs. This is a nonviolent revolution. Well, it will be nonviolent on the part of the revolutionaries. There are no guarantees what the government will do or how it will react. The soldiers in this revolution are all of us who have had enough and are voting with our feet. Opt out. Or, put another way, “Tune in, Turn on and Drop out!”

Why not? Do we really care who the President sleeps with? Do we really want to participate in a system that stations troops in more than 140 countries around the world? Do we think it’s right for those troops to be teaching military and police in those countries to torture and maim and kill the people living in those countries? Do we think our government should really be creating a series of trade agreements to make it easier of multinational companies, especially the “fortunate five hundred” to become the ultimate welfare recipients as they are subsidized in their export of American jobs? Do we believe we really need over 1,200 SWAT teams in communities across the country from Maine to Maui? Do we really want the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to be able to listen to every phone call and read every email message we send? Do we believe it’s the job of the national government to decide what we teach our children? Do we really have to be forced to save for our retirement? Do we require the national government to tell us what is or isn’t clean air or water? Do we really need the national government to run our lives? Are we really that stupid?

If you answered yes to any of those questions that’s fine. But you might not enjoy this blog.

Some will say, “Do we really need a national government at all?” Yeah, we probably do. That government should provide for the common defense, assure the availability of sound money (not just paper backed by debt instruments), protect civil liberties and maintain a judiciary to resolve disputes. But, “The Nanny State,” as we know it, is obsolete and didn’t work anyway.