Janus is the God of beginnings and endings after whom January is named. As January approaches and the old year winds down it seems appropriate to ponder our own endings and beginnings.
The end is thankfully near for the Bush Administration while, ever hopeful, the world awaits the begining of the Obama era. Seldom has there been such optimism surrounding an individual as that which surrounds Obama. This despite the early indications that rather than delivering change he is opting for continuity.
The end is at hand for 2008, yet the damage done to the markets over the past several decades appears likely to continue to arrive for the forseeable future. A recent prediction in the Wall Street Journal based on a mathmetical analysis of 27 million mortgages asserts that the 60 day deliquency rate for mortgages will almost double before the end of 2009, which has yet to begin.
The end appears to be beginning to arrive for the misadventure in Iraq, while the next surge is being launched into Afghanistan. The end of the war began on 9/11/01 appears illusive. Already this is the longest war in the history of America.
Each of us has our own endings and beginnings to ponder as 2008 withers and 2009 approaches. May your endings be happy ones and may your beginings bring you succdess as well as pleasure!
Friday, December 26, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
The Emperor Has No Clothes!
Butler Shaffer is a free man. He has also been called an anarchist. Butler Shaffer earns a living by teaching at a law school, where it is certain he is unlike few if any other law professors on the planet. Why, because he recognizes that the ultimate source of sovereign power is the individual, not the state.
In a recent essay published at Lew Rockwell's site, Butler Shaffer pointed out the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the Republican Party. According to Shaffer, the GOP, the "Grand Old Party," is now on a crusade to create "resistance to Obama's socialist agenda over the next four years," and to "stop Obama's plans to bring socialism to America."
Yet, Shaffer asks, where were the Republicans "when their GOP president, George W. Bush, was engaging in wars that put billions of dollars into the pockets of their corporate friends, and led the same president to state, to members of Congress, that he would declare martial law if they did not pass legislation bestowing hundreds of billions of dollars of largess upon Wall Street banking interests? Is the GOP so hopelessly bankrupt that some of its members must resort to a distinction without meaning that condemns state socialism while ignoring its own contributions to the state-sponsored economic destruction emanating from a Republican White House?" Shaffer asks is the Grand Old Party "henceforth to be known as the "Grasping Omnipotent Plutocracy?"
Shaffer points out the "fundamental distinction" between the mythical "free market" and the currently dominant "business system" is the "socializing the costs of doing business, while privatizing the profits." The Bailouts, projected to eventually cost in the neighborhood of $7.7 trillion are evidence. What makes a large financial institution or auto manufacturer for that matter worthy of a Bailout? This last question is being asked now that the Democrats are getting into the plunder and pillage mode to protect their power base funded in large measure by the precious union contracts that are bankrupting American car companies. What disqualifies individual home owners from a Bailout? Clearly the only meaningful distinction is membership in the Plutocracy.
And what pray tell does this really mean to each of us? Shaffer shows the math is simple. Each of us, every man, woman and child in the United States is now on the hook for about $25,000 in additional debt. Divide the cost of the bailout by the population of the country: $7,700,000,000,000 by 300,000,000 and you'll find The Rainmaker has understated the number a tad. Hopefully you enjoyed the party over the past few months.
The Rainmaker doesn't mean to quibble with Butler Shaffer, in fact we have no disagreement with him at all beyond the fact that he doesn't carry the analysis far enough.
In fact, Butler Shaffer is correct and the Republican Administration's actions are socializing risk while privatizing profit. But, Congressional Democrats have worked hand in glove with the Administration. Now, the same folks who designed and are executing the Bailout for the Bush Administration have been tapped by the incoming Democratic Administration to serve as our economic stewards for the at least the next four years. Clearly there is a consensus in Washington among the Republicrat and Demopublican factions of the Plutocracy to change nothing.
And, the hits just keep on coming. There will eventually be another $3 trillion of debt associated with the current wars. And, beginning in 2010 the Medicare system is cash flow negative, which is a $36.6 trillion problem. Then in 2017 Social Security goes under water at an unfunded cost of $7 trillion. There is also the nontrivial matter of unfunded pension liabilities guaranteed by the government and other miscellaneous obligations that add up to another $600 million. There is also the national debt accumulated over the past fifty or so years, which was about $8 trillion back in July. All those numbers on the entitlements and pensions are according to Fortune Magazine in their special report on the U.S. economy published November 24, 2003.
Thus the real financial fiasco is thought to total at least $55 trillion and, brace yourself, your share is in the neighborhood of $180,000 rather than the mere $25,000 suggested by Butler Shaffer for the fall follies in Washington. And, the politicians aren't done yet.
Neither are you. A few days ago we pointed out that government can't give anything to anyone without eventually taking it from someone else. That someone else is you, your children and your grandchildren. Where will you and each member of your family come up with that $180,000? Many of you will say tax the rich and of course to some degree that will happen, but the rich ways of gaming the system to limit their exposure. Others will say tax the corporations and that will happen. But ultimately those corporate taxes will be passed along to you as higher prices. One way or another the government is coming to your home and your family looking for that money.
The Rainmaker thanks Roger for the following thought provoking observation written by Scottish history professor Alexander Tyler in the late 18th century on the subject of the end of the Athenian Republic:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During these 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:
1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual Faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence; and,
8. From dependence back into bondage."
If you have any doubts about what is happening in these United States, read "Dependent on DC," by Charlotte Twight.
Can the American Republic be the exception Tyler's theory? That is up to us. Do your really expect to get the change you can believe in from the Obama Administration? If so there is also a bridge you might be interested in buying.
Or, is it perhaps time to follow the example of John Galt and vote with our feet before it is too late?
In a recent essay published at Lew Rockwell's site, Butler Shaffer pointed out the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the Republican Party. According to Shaffer, the GOP, the "Grand Old Party," is now on a crusade to create "resistance to Obama's socialist agenda over the next four years," and to "stop Obama's plans to bring socialism to America."
Yet, Shaffer asks, where were the Republicans "when their GOP president, George W. Bush, was engaging in wars that put billions of dollars into the pockets of their corporate friends, and led the same president to state, to members of Congress, that he would declare martial law if they did not pass legislation bestowing hundreds of billions of dollars of largess upon Wall Street banking interests? Is the GOP so hopelessly bankrupt that some of its members must resort to a distinction without meaning that condemns state socialism while ignoring its own contributions to the state-sponsored economic destruction emanating from a Republican White House?" Shaffer asks is the Grand Old Party "henceforth to be known as the "Grasping Omnipotent Plutocracy?"
Shaffer points out the "fundamental distinction" between the mythical "free market" and the currently dominant "business system" is the "socializing the costs of doing business, while privatizing the profits." The Bailouts, projected to eventually cost in the neighborhood of $7.7 trillion are evidence. What makes a large financial institution or auto manufacturer for that matter worthy of a Bailout? This last question is being asked now that the Democrats are getting into the plunder and pillage mode to protect their power base funded in large measure by the precious union contracts that are bankrupting American car companies. What disqualifies individual home owners from a Bailout? Clearly the only meaningful distinction is membership in the Plutocracy.
And what pray tell does this really mean to each of us? Shaffer shows the math is simple. Each of us, every man, woman and child in the United States is now on the hook for about $25,000 in additional debt. Divide the cost of the bailout by the population of the country: $7,700,000,000,000 by 300,000,000 and you'll find The Rainmaker has understated the number a tad. Hopefully you enjoyed the party over the past few months.
The Rainmaker doesn't mean to quibble with Butler Shaffer, in fact we have no disagreement with him at all beyond the fact that he doesn't carry the analysis far enough.
In fact, Butler Shaffer is correct and the Republican Administration's actions are socializing risk while privatizing profit. But, Congressional Democrats have worked hand in glove with the Administration. Now, the same folks who designed and are executing the Bailout for the Bush Administration have been tapped by the incoming Democratic Administration to serve as our economic stewards for the at least the next four years. Clearly there is a consensus in Washington among the Republicrat and Demopublican factions of the Plutocracy to change nothing.
And, the hits just keep on coming. There will eventually be another $3 trillion of debt associated with the current wars. And, beginning in 2010 the Medicare system is cash flow negative, which is a $36.6 trillion problem. Then in 2017 Social Security goes under water at an unfunded cost of $7 trillion. There is also the nontrivial matter of unfunded pension liabilities guaranteed by the government and other miscellaneous obligations that add up to another $600 million. There is also the national debt accumulated over the past fifty or so years, which was about $8 trillion back in July. All those numbers on the entitlements and pensions are according to Fortune Magazine in their special report on the U.S. economy published November 24, 2003.
Thus the real financial fiasco is thought to total at least $55 trillion and, brace yourself, your share is in the neighborhood of $180,000 rather than the mere $25,000 suggested by Butler Shaffer for the fall follies in Washington. And, the politicians aren't done yet.
Neither are you. A few days ago we pointed out that government can't give anything to anyone without eventually taking it from someone else. That someone else is you, your children and your grandchildren. Where will you and each member of your family come up with that $180,000? Many of you will say tax the rich and of course to some degree that will happen, but the rich ways of gaming the system to limit their exposure. Others will say tax the corporations and that will happen. But ultimately those corporate taxes will be passed along to you as higher prices. One way or another the government is coming to your home and your family looking for that money.
The Rainmaker thanks Roger for the following thought provoking observation written by Scottish history professor Alexander Tyler in the late 18th century on the subject of the end of the Athenian Republic:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During these 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:
1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual Faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence; and,
8. From dependence back into bondage."
If you have any doubts about what is happening in these United States, read "Dependent on DC," by Charlotte Twight.
Can the American Republic be the exception Tyler's theory? That is up to us. Do your really expect to get the change you can believe in from the Obama Administration? If so there is also a bridge you might be interested in buying.
Or, is it perhaps time to follow the example of John Galt and vote with our feet before it is too late?
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Continuity We Can Believe In
Thanks to Margrit for the headline and the idea. Although the President elect campaigned on the basis of "Change We Can Believe In," his initial appointments appear to be calculated to give the impression of stability, experience, competence and confidence.
Of course the President elect does have one thing in common with his predecessor the President select in that both made it perfectly clear early on that, in the immortal fractured syntax of the President select, "I am the decider." Can the new Administration deliver real and meaningful change?
Stay tuned.
Of course the President elect does have one thing in common with his predecessor the President select in that both made it perfectly clear early on that, in the immortal fractured syntax of the President select, "I am the decider." Can the new Administration deliver real and meaningful change?
Stay tuned.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Words of Wisdom
The following observations are true although the author is unknown to the Rainmaker. Please read, consider and share them as you see fit.
First, it is impossible to legislate the poor into financial freedom by legislating the wealthy out of financial freedom or even into poverty.
Second, what one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
Third, the government cannot give anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
Fourth, when half the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody is going to get what they work for, that is about the end of any nation.
Fifth, it is simply impossible to multiply wealth by dividing it.
Finally, it is simply impossible to legislate morality.
The Rainmaker thanks Peter Poranski for inspiring this post.
First, it is impossible to legislate the poor into financial freedom by legislating the wealthy out of financial freedom or even into poverty.
Second, what one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
Third, the government cannot give anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
Fourth, when half the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody is going to get what they work for, that is about the end of any nation.
Fifth, it is simply impossible to multiply wealth by dividing it.
Finally, it is simply impossible to legislate morality.
The Rainmaker thanks Peter Poranski for inspiring this post.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Obama's Opportunity
This is a unique moment and expectations for change are soaring.
Yet the early warning signals seem to indicate that Obama is likely to "stay the course" in too many respects. The President Elect tapped a member of the Clinton Old Guard to become Chief of Staff. The Vice President Elect is a member of the foreign policy establishment. Plans appear in place to increase the troop levels in Afghanistan and maintain the current Administration's Secretary of Defense.
Although it seems that real change could come if the new President has the will and imagination to think outside the box.
Imagine he ends "race, sex and ethnicity" based preference programs. With a Black man in the Presidency does affirmative action really have a place in American society?
Imagine he brings home the troops stationed in Japan and Germany. After all the war they won ended almost 65 years ago and the Soviet threat evaporated about eighteen years ago. Is it really appropriate to enforce a "Pax Americana" on the world any more?
Imagine he endorses a National Initiative to actually give the people the right to decide important policies rather than allowing the current corrupt system to continue without a check and balance. My personal favorite or all the possible forms of National Initiative is at "http://www.ni4d.org" and you can vote for it today. What if the President Elect were to endorse this concept?
These are just a few ideas. You no doubt have others equally outside the box and perhaps better than those offered by The Rainmaker. And, the new Administration has invited us to participate in suggesting audacious ideas. They have created a web site at "http://change.gov" where you can offer your suggestions. Although skepticism is tempting, what do you have to lose by offering a suggestion or several?
Yet the early warning signals seem to indicate that Obama is likely to "stay the course" in too many respects. The President Elect tapped a member of the Clinton Old Guard to become Chief of Staff. The Vice President Elect is a member of the foreign policy establishment. Plans appear in place to increase the troop levels in Afghanistan and maintain the current Administration's Secretary of Defense.
Although it seems that real change could come if the new President has the will and imagination to think outside the box.
Imagine he ends "race, sex and ethnicity" based preference programs. With a Black man in the Presidency does affirmative action really have a place in American society?
Imagine he brings home the troops stationed in Japan and Germany. After all the war they won ended almost 65 years ago and the Soviet threat evaporated about eighteen years ago. Is it really appropriate to enforce a "Pax Americana" on the world any more?
Imagine he endorses a National Initiative to actually give the people the right to decide important policies rather than allowing the current corrupt system to continue without a check and balance. My personal favorite or all the possible forms of National Initiative is at "http://www.ni4d.org" and you can vote for it today. What if the President Elect were to endorse this concept?
These are just a few ideas. You no doubt have others equally outside the box and perhaps better than those offered by The Rainmaker. And, the new Administration has invited us to participate in suggesting audacious ideas. They have created a web site at "http://change.gov" where you can offer your suggestions. Although skepticism is tempting, what do you have to lose by offering a suggestion or several?
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Take a Deep Breath
All too often, each of us is confronted with stressful situations, feelings of guilt, health problems, work hassles, nasty-rude people, fear, political conflict and the odd and assorted financial problem. We tend to take this personally, feeling victimized and put upon. Although the problem is ultimately that we are suffering the consequences of previous decisions we made.
We usually hate to admit that we create our own reality but we do whether we intend to or not. The fact is we do create our own reality and the present is our point of power. Once the present is past our leverage evaporates. When we focus on past decisions with regret we guilt ourselves. When we worry about the future we experience fear. But all we can control is the present. Guilt is useless. Fear is the mind killer. When we choose to remain in the present we experience peace.
So why not take a deep breath, slow down and think about the choices we are making each day as we make them. Actually, we are either typically obsessive in our guilt about the past or fear of the future. Tragically, we choose to feel guilt over the consequences of our choices after the fact, hopelessly attempting to clean up the debris. Or, we fearfully obsess about the future, helplessly anticipating the worst.
The alternative is to live in the present and be at peace.
The Rainmaker believes it is better to think about the choices we make as we are making them in the present. The alternative is to wander through life in an oblivious fog; alternating our focus between guilt and fear, while dealing with an endless stream of unintended consequences.
We usually hate to admit that we create our own reality but we do whether we intend to or not. The fact is we do create our own reality and the present is our point of power. Once the present is past our leverage evaporates. When we focus on past decisions with regret we guilt ourselves. When we worry about the future we experience fear. But all we can control is the present. Guilt is useless. Fear is the mind killer. When we choose to remain in the present we experience peace.
So why not take a deep breath, slow down and think about the choices we are making each day as we make them. Actually, we are either typically obsessive in our guilt about the past or fear of the future. Tragically, we choose to feel guilt over the consequences of our choices after the fact, hopelessly attempting to clean up the debris. Or, we fearfully obsess about the future, helplessly anticipating the worst.
The alternative is to live in the present and be at peace.
The Rainmaker believes it is better to think about the choices we make as we are making them in the present. The alternative is to wander through life in an oblivious fog; alternating our focus between guilt and fear, while dealing with an endless stream of unintended consequences.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Expect a Miracle
Too often we expect the worst and that's exactly what we experience. A business deal doesn't go right. We lose faith and patience. Our trust in the transaction is lost. Then, a partner says let's give it one more chance. There is no need to rush to litigation according to our partner. Against our better judgment we wait just a little longer.
Then out of the blue the unexpected happens. The other party to the transaction actually performs as mandated by the contract. And, rather than spending the next 18 months and who knows how much in legal fees pursuing inadequate remedies, the deal works.
So the lesson is have a little faith, have a lot of patience and choose to expect a miracle. Sometimes the outcome is positive.
How much time and energy to we waste day to day choosing to expect the worst?
Why not choose to expect to be pleasantly surprised. Why not expect a miracle?
What really do we have to lose?
Then out of the blue the unexpected happens. The other party to the transaction actually performs as mandated by the contract. And, rather than spending the next 18 months and who knows how much in legal fees pursuing inadequate remedies, the deal works.
So the lesson is have a little faith, have a lot of patience and choose to expect a miracle. Sometimes the outcome is positive.
How much time and energy to we waste day to day choosing to expect the worst?
Why not choose to expect to be pleasantly surprised. Why not expect a miracle?
What really do we have to lose?
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Peaceful Easy Feeling
Imagine all the energy we collectively waste in trivial pursuit of real and imagined sleights, hassles, insults, feuds, grudges and political disputation.
All this was brought to the Rainmakers immediate attention yesterday afternoon by a close encounter while ambling across a street in a cross walk with a small red car being driven quite recklessly by a young man on a cell phone in Arlington, Virginia. Evasive action was required before the obliviously distracted driver realized he had a helpless pedestrian in his sights.
The surprising thing isn't that the heart got a good old fashioned aerobic jump start, or that there was one quite contrite driver once awareness kicked in. The surprising thing is the emotion experienced by your pedestrian writer. Rather than road rage or even anger the reaction was one of giddy relief at escaping injury or even death. It was a momentary celebration of staying alive that has lasted overnight and well into the next day, reminding the Rainmaker of the old lyric by Rare Earth, "I just want to celebrate another day of living."
This reaction obviously surprised the concerned driver as well as several passers by who found the lack of anger wholly unexpected.
All this leads one to recognize that forgiveness is indeed a virtue and that having well and truly forgiven those who offend us, do us wrong or make us angry for whatever reason leads to a, with apologies to the rock group the Eagles, "Peaceful Easy Feeling."
That isn't a bad place to be. In fact it is infinitely preferable to a hospital or worse.
All this was brought to the Rainmakers immediate attention yesterday afternoon by a close encounter while ambling across a street in a cross walk with a small red car being driven quite recklessly by a young man on a cell phone in Arlington, Virginia. Evasive action was required before the obliviously distracted driver realized he had a helpless pedestrian in his sights.
The surprising thing isn't that the heart got a good old fashioned aerobic jump start, or that there was one quite contrite driver once awareness kicked in. The surprising thing is the emotion experienced by your pedestrian writer. Rather than road rage or even anger the reaction was one of giddy relief at escaping injury or even death. It was a momentary celebration of staying alive that has lasted overnight and well into the next day, reminding the Rainmaker of the old lyric by Rare Earth, "I just want to celebrate another day of living."
This reaction obviously surprised the concerned driver as well as several passers by who found the lack of anger wholly unexpected.
All this leads one to recognize that forgiveness is indeed a virtue and that having well and truly forgiven those who offend us, do us wrong or make us angry for whatever reason leads to a, with apologies to the rock group the Eagles, "Peaceful Easy Feeling."
That isn't a bad place to be. In fact it is infinitely preferable to a hospital or worse.
Monday, October 27, 2008
We Get What We Ask For
An alternative title for this blog is Visualize World Peace. Many of us hate war, poverty, hunger, waste, paper money and taxes. Depending on our particular emphasis we pick one or more of these to actively oppose. We become anti war or anti poverty or tax resisters. Most of us probably wonder why if we want peace we still have war. Especially when most people agree with us. There is a clear majority in America for peace. There is a clear majority in the American Congress for peace. Around the world there is a consensus that peace is better than war. Yet war persists. American defense expenditures are more than the all rest of the world collectively spends. What's wrong with this picture?
The same can be said for the other issues listed above as well.
The reason is that by being anti war or anti tax we buy into the reality of war and the reality of tax. Being opposed to something locks us into the reality in which that which is opposed must necessarily continue to exist to facilitate the opposition.
Thus neither the War on Poverty nor the War on Drugs can ever be won. When bad economic policies precipitate a crash, it makes no sense to repeat those policies with even more money to alleviate the crash, yet that is what has happened in the past few weeks.
To attain world peace or anything else we must move beyond war. Resistance is futile. If we want change we must, as Gandhi said, "Be the change."
This is why The Rainmaker boldly predicted that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, nothing much will really change.
The same can be said for the other issues listed above as well.
The reason is that by being anti war or anti tax we buy into the reality of war and the reality of tax. Being opposed to something locks us into the reality in which that which is opposed must necessarily continue to exist to facilitate the opposition.
Thus neither the War on Poverty nor the War on Drugs can ever be won. When bad economic policies precipitate a crash, it makes no sense to repeat those policies with even more money to alleviate the crash, yet that is what has happened in the past few weeks.
To attain world peace or anything else we must move beyond war. Resistance is futile. If we want change we must, as Gandhi said, "Be the change."
This is why The Rainmaker boldly predicted that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, nothing much will really change.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Sir Francis Bacon Part Two
A few days ago The Rainmaker published a discussion of a very short but interesting set of propositions by Sir Francis BAcon, politician, statesman, poet, author, philosopher and enthusiastic promoter of the scientific revolution. That post was inspired by our correspondendent Diana. As promised in that post our reactions will be provided to both Bacon's "Stumbling-Blocks to Truth," and Diana's points to ponder. Diana's material is highlighted in Bold, the original text of The Rainmaker's original post will appear in italics and today's text will look just like this.
As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude...The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book The Rainmaker ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about Bacon's blocks in full: (The Rainmaker's comments are inserted into Diana's text in regular type.)
Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
The Rainmaker agrees that Sir Robert nailed the problem pretty concisely yet compreshesively and suspects that Machiavelli would consider #1 above to be an Oxymoron.
2) long-standing continuance of custom
The Rainmaker suspects that Hobbs would disagree the #2 is always an obstacle. The Rainmaker can almost anticipate George Wills column to refute this proposition.
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The Rainmaker strongly suspects that Sir Roger Bacon would be glad he didn't live in the era of Congressional hearings, spin doctors and cable news networks as those pertain to items #3 and #4.
The Rainmaker is no philosopher but sees nothing to disagree with in the four statements. All four are indeed stumbling-blocks in the way of grasping the truth.
The foregoing was obviously, at least to The Rainmaker Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
Yes, and The Rainmaker believes they are being used with malice aforethought. Search for this website featuring the "Money as Debt" movie and invest 45 minutes, then let The Rainmaker know if you agree or disagree with this answer.
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
Only those with their mouths shut who are not writing anything. Seriously The Rainmaker believes one can trust that government which is closest to home most and hold that government more accountable. The closer one gets to the center (a state capital or Washington) the less trustworthy and the less accountable the politician or bureaucrat.
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
The media is a medium of obfuscation, interest group propaganda, sensationalism and entertainment. The media will keep us from obtaining the truth only if we allow it to do that. In the Rainmaker's opinion we are each on our own hook when it comes to becoming informed and wise.
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
In every way they can conceive of in order to obtain their respective real objectives, which are almost universally applicable to any candidate for any office:
*To be elected;
*To grow (pick at least two) powerful, wealthy and famous at public expense;
*To maximize their personal perogative's and perks;
*To use their power to peddle influence in order to lavishly fund their reelection campaigns;
*To be reelected often at any cost, which usually means don't rock the boat and go along to get along;
*To conceal "their own ignorance," confusion, uncertainty and insecurities while exhibiting apparent "wisdom" that in reality is merely conventional wisdom;
*To maximise their own perceived power and privilege;
*To leave a "legacy" of honor purchased at the taxpayer's cost and the soldier's life, both spent as necessary to furthur the politicians self interest; and,
*To do the right thing for the country, its citizens and the world if it doesn't conflict with any of the preceeding objectives.
The Rainmaker believes that if asked, any politician will answer that his or her objective is the last one listed and further, that being masters of "Cognitive Dissonance" politicians and bureaucrats have usually convinced themselves that is in fact the case. However, it is the Rainmaker's opinion that the previous eight objectives are pretty much listed in the real world order of importance.
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
The Rainmaker believes the United State's monetary system is inherently dishonest. As the monetary system is the medium in which a society functions, when it is poluted it will eventually do to society what dirty water eventually does to a fish--kill it. There has never been a paper money, debt money system that has managed to survive 100 years. Ours is about 94 years old.
Therefore since the medium in which society functions is dishonest--no matter how well meaning and personally honest most people in a society might be and usually are in their day to day lives--the society itself is tainted. Periodic economic dislocations are probably inevitable in any society, but the dislocations experienced by a society function with dishonest money are more frequent, more severe and ultimately fatal. That is The Rainmaker's observation regarding Diana's final point.
The Rainmaker offers the following support of this observation. That support is in the form of three books.
The first is "Money and Debt" by Thomas Greco. It can be found at a website called "Reinventing Money" in the "library" on that site and can be downloaded for free (it's only a 65 pages). It comes in three parts (meaning separate pdf files).
The second is "Debt Virus" by Dr. Jacques Jaidaran M.D. and it can be found at most online booksellers. "Debt Virus" is excellent although longer and a more expensive option than "Money and Debt.
And if really ambitious, read "Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt," written by an English Nobel Prize winning physicist Frederick Soddy. It was written about 80 years ago and reads that way. But it is well worth the effort.
Just something to ponder...
Obviously The Rainmaker's hot button was pushed by Diana's material. Hopefully you will find some value in all of this. Even if it is only value equal to a dime, it is 30% more in terms of intrinsic worth than the paper and ink we call money. This is because a dime is actually worth more regardless of the denomination of the bill the paper and ink comprise. That's right the intrinsic value (the worth of each bill, be is $1.00 or $100.00) is about $0.07.
As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude...The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book The Rainmaker ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about Bacon's blocks in full: (The Rainmaker's comments are inserted into Diana's text in regular type.)
Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
The Rainmaker agrees that Sir Robert nailed the problem pretty concisely yet compreshesively and suspects that Machiavelli would consider #1 above to be an Oxymoron.
2) long-standing continuance of custom
The Rainmaker suspects that Hobbs would disagree the #2 is always an obstacle. The Rainmaker can almost anticipate George Wills column to refute this proposition.
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The Rainmaker strongly suspects that Sir Roger Bacon would be glad he didn't live in the era of Congressional hearings, spin doctors and cable news networks as those pertain to items #3 and #4.
The Rainmaker is no philosopher but sees nothing to disagree with in the four statements. All four are indeed stumbling-blocks in the way of grasping the truth.
The foregoing was obviously, at least to The Rainmaker Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
Yes, and The Rainmaker believes they are being used with malice aforethought. Search for this website featuring the "Money as Debt" movie and invest 45 minutes, then let The Rainmaker know if you agree or disagree with this answer.
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
Only those with their mouths shut who are not writing anything. Seriously The Rainmaker believes one can trust that government which is closest to home most and hold that government more accountable. The closer one gets to the center (a state capital or Washington) the less trustworthy and the less accountable the politician or bureaucrat.
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
The media is a medium of obfuscation, interest group propaganda, sensationalism and entertainment. The media will keep us from obtaining the truth only if we allow it to do that. In the Rainmaker's opinion we are each on our own hook when it comes to becoming informed and wise.
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
In every way they can conceive of in order to obtain their respective real objectives, which are almost universally applicable to any candidate for any office:
*To be elected;
*To grow (pick at least two) powerful, wealthy and famous at public expense;
*To maximize their personal perogative's and perks;
*To use their power to peddle influence in order to lavishly fund their reelection campaigns;
*To be reelected often at any cost, which usually means don't rock the boat and go along to get along;
*To conceal "their own ignorance," confusion, uncertainty and insecurities while exhibiting apparent "wisdom" that in reality is merely conventional wisdom;
*To maximise their own perceived power and privilege;
*To leave a "legacy" of honor purchased at the taxpayer's cost and the soldier's life, both spent as necessary to furthur the politicians self interest; and,
*To do the right thing for the country, its citizens and the world if it doesn't conflict with any of the preceeding objectives.
The Rainmaker believes that if asked, any politician will answer that his or her objective is the last one listed and further, that being masters of "Cognitive Dissonance" politicians and bureaucrats have usually convinced themselves that is in fact the case. However, it is the Rainmaker's opinion that the previous eight objectives are pretty much listed in the real world order of importance.
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
The Rainmaker believes the United State's monetary system is inherently dishonest. As the monetary system is the medium in which a society functions, when it is poluted it will eventually do to society what dirty water eventually does to a fish--kill it. There has never been a paper money, debt money system that has managed to survive 100 years. Ours is about 94 years old.
Therefore since the medium in which society functions is dishonest--no matter how well meaning and personally honest most people in a society might be and usually are in their day to day lives--the society itself is tainted. Periodic economic dislocations are probably inevitable in any society, but the dislocations experienced by a society function with dishonest money are more frequent, more severe and ultimately fatal. That is The Rainmaker's observation regarding Diana's final point.
The Rainmaker offers the following support of this observation. That support is in the form of three books.
The first is "Money and Debt" by Thomas Greco. It can be found at a website called "Reinventing Money" in the "library" on that site and can be downloaded for free (it's only a 65 pages). It comes in three parts (meaning separate pdf files).
The second is "Debt Virus" by Dr. Jacques Jaidaran M.D. and it can be found at most online booksellers. "Debt Virus" is excellent although longer and a more expensive option than "Money and Debt.
And if really ambitious, read "Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt," written by an English Nobel Prize winning physicist Frederick Soddy. It was written about 80 years ago and reads that way. But it is well worth the effort.
Just something to ponder...
Obviously The Rainmaker's hot button was pushed by Diana's material. Hopefully you will find some value in all of this. Even if it is only value equal to a dime, it is 30% more in terms of intrinsic worth than the paper and ink we call money. This is because a dime is actually worth more regardless of the denomination of the bill the paper and ink comprise. That's right the intrinsic value (the worth of each bill, be is $1.00 or $100.00) is about $0.07.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Sir Francis Bacon
Today The Rainmaker received an email sent by Peter P. on behalf of his spouse Diana. The subject line was "Only For The Intellectually Curious."
The first reaction was "Yeah, right." But then The Rainmaker started to read. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut once every now and then. And The Rainmaker is grateful to be the squirrel that decided to read Diana's insightful thoughts, questions and observations. She might have been Socrates in a former life!
The Rainmaker is really happy to have invested the time to read and ponder Diana's observations on Bacon as well as her wise questions. Hopefully you won't be dissappointed that to have this material inflicted on yourselves.
The email begins by asking the question:
"As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'"
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude who lived about the same time as a fellow named Shakespeare was alleged to have lived. There is an emerging consensus (although still significant doubt) that if Shakespeare didn't right his material Bacon is a very likely suspect to be ghost writer. The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book I ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about them in full:
"Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
2) long-standing continuance of custom
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The foregoing was obviously, at least to me Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
Just something to ponder..."
The Rainmaker commented on the Bacon material and responded to Diana's thoughts and points to ponder. Rather than be a typical media outlet The Rainmaker will give you some time to ponder these points on your own before poluting your thought process with Rainmaker opinion, suposition and prejudice. In a day or two, perhaps longer another post will explore the already written observations, thoughts, conclusions, rants and, hopefully, provide the occasional insight.
Until then, hasta la vista!
The first reaction was "Yeah, right." But then The Rainmaker started to read. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut once every now and then. And The Rainmaker is grateful to be the squirrel that decided to read Diana's insightful thoughts, questions and observations. She might have been Socrates in a former life!
The Rainmaker is really happy to have invested the time to read and ponder Diana's observations on Bacon as well as her wise questions. Hopefully you won't be dissappointed that to have this material inflicted on yourselves.
The email begins by asking the question:
"As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'"
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude who lived about the same time as a fellow named Shakespeare was alleged to have lived. There is an emerging consensus (although still significant doubt) that if Shakespeare didn't right his material Bacon is a very likely suspect to be ghost writer. The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book I ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about them in full:
"Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
2) long-standing continuance of custom
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The foregoing was obviously, at least to me Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
Just something to ponder..."
The Rainmaker commented on the Bacon material and responded to Diana's thoughts and points to ponder. Rather than be a typical media outlet The Rainmaker will give you some time to ponder these points on your own before poluting your thought process with Rainmaker opinion, suposition and prejudice. In a day or two, perhaps longer another post will explore the already written observations, thoughts, conclusions, rants and, hopefully, provide the occasional insight.
Until then, hasta la vista!
Friday, October 3, 2008
Interesting Times
Earlier today I spoke with my friend Greg Fossedal on the telephone and we agreed that the election is over but for the counting. Obama is opening a lead over McCain that has been expanding ever since the financial crises caught our attention. Neither of us can imagine a scenario that wins the election of McCain. Of course this is the year of the unexpected and our expectation of the electoral outcome smacks of conventional wisdom, which is usually wrong.
Then a gentleman with whom I correspond but who I have never personally met, Peter Poranski (obviously an Irishman), made a comment in an email, which I found fascinating. Peter said that if we elect McCain we'll be a Socialist country in two years, but if we elect Obama we'll be there in six months. So, that leads me to ask, if we are ending up in the same place either way, why vote for the cheap imitation? Clearly "We are the change we have been waiting for!" Obama is the "The Man!"
Nevertheless, all is not well. I write this tonight on my balcony, having watched the sunset over the Potomac, the monuments and, I fear, the Republic.
Today the White House is occupied by a man who pays lip service to Free Markets but then tells the Secretary of the Treasury to do what needs to be done, regardless of the politics and candidate McCain echos that after the Bailout's initial defeat in the House but adds, regardless of the law!
A similar point of view led his predecessor Lyndon Johnson to create the diabolical twins Freddie and Fanny in an effort to hide the financial implications of financing the war in Viet Nam. In 1965, LBJ also brought us the blessings of Medicare, which goes into the red on a cash flow basis in 2010 and depletes it's unfunded Congresional IOUs in 2018; falling 20% short of breakeven thereafter.
Another President, FDR, created another Ponzie Scheme known as Social Security to show "progress" and buy votes in the midst of the Great Depression. This piece of financial sleight of hand goes into cash flow negativity in 2017 and exhausts its unfunded Congressional IOUs in 2042; falling 30% short of returning the "contributions" made by employees thereafter.
Imagine paying into a health insurance plan or savings account and discovering that when you need the money back you should forget about any return on investment at all and will only receive back 80 or 70 cents, respectively on these two entitlement programs, on each dollar of principle you deposited into the system?
Imagine that the consensus solution to put these trains back on the track is to raise the payroll tax, the most regressive tax imposed on Americans, as much as 50% while cutting benefits to close the 20% Medicare and 30% Social Security shortfall.
In other words, all that money we paid into the Medicare and Scoial Seurity surpluses between the 80's and now simply evaporates. Meanwhile we have the satisfaction of knowing the money stolen from each or our pachecks every payday by that bandit FICA has helped fund a solvent and robust Federal Thrift Savings Plan for Federal Employees and Congress Critters, featuring those dreaded personal accounts the rest of us can't be trusted with. FICA has also paid for series of wars, weapons systems and boondogles like the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." Doesn't all that make you proud to be an American?
Wow, if Wall Street did that we'd all be howling that those greedy capitalists should be sent off to jail. Yet your elected leaders over at least 40+ years have done exactly that. My friends (with apologies to John McCain) we have been taken for a ride. Neiher Senator Status nor Senator Quo, as my friend Greg Fossedal calls Obama and McCain, will change this scenario if elected President this November.
As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times." We are well and truly cursed.
Then a gentleman with whom I correspond but who I have never personally met, Peter Poranski (obviously an Irishman), made a comment in an email, which I found fascinating. Peter said that if we elect McCain we'll be a Socialist country in two years, but if we elect Obama we'll be there in six months. So, that leads me to ask, if we are ending up in the same place either way, why vote for the cheap imitation? Clearly "We are the change we have been waiting for!" Obama is the "The Man!"
Nevertheless, all is not well. I write this tonight on my balcony, having watched the sunset over the Potomac, the monuments and, I fear, the Republic.
Today the White House is occupied by a man who pays lip service to Free Markets but then tells the Secretary of the Treasury to do what needs to be done, regardless of the politics and candidate McCain echos that after the Bailout's initial defeat in the House but adds, regardless of the law!
A similar point of view led his predecessor Lyndon Johnson to create the diabolical twins Freddie and Fanny in an effort to hide the financial implications of financing the war in Viet Nam. In 1965, LBJ also brought us the blessings of Medicare, which goes into the red on a cash flow basis in 2010 and depletes it's unfunded Congresional IOUs in 2018; falling 20% short of breakeven thereafter.
Another President, FDR, created another Ponzie Scheme known as Social Security to show "progress" and buy votes in the midst of the Great Depression. This piece of financial sleight of hand goes into cash flow negativity in 2017 and exhausts its unfunded Congressional IOUs in 2042; falling 30% short of returning the "contributions" made by employees thereafter.
Imagine paying into a health insurance plan or savings account and discovering that when you need the money back you should forget about any return on investment at all and will only receive back 80 or 70 cents, respectively on these two entitlement programs, on each dollar of principle you deposited into the system?
Imagine that the consensus solution to put these trains back on the track is to raise the payroll tax, the most regressive tax imposed on Americans, as much as 50% while cutting benefits to close the 20% Medicare and 30% Social Security shortfall.
In other words, all that money we paid into the Medicare and Scoial Seurity surpluses between the 80's and now simply evaporates. Meanwhile we have the satisfaction of knowing the money stolen from each or our pachecks every payday by that bandit FICA has helped fund a solvent and robust Federal Thrift Savings Plan for Federal Employees and Congress Critters, featuring those dreaded personal accounts the rest of us can't be trusted with. FICA has also paid for series of wars, weapons systems and boondogles like the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." Doesn't all that make you proud to be an American?
Wow, if Wall Street did that we'd all be howling that those greedy capitalists should be sent off to jail. Yet your elected leaders over at least 40+ years have done exactly that. My friends (with apologies to John McCain) we have been taken for a ride. Neiher Senator Status nor Senator Quo, as my friend Greg Fossedal calls Obama and McCain, will change this scenario if elected President this November.
As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times." We are well and truly cursed.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
OZ on the Potomac
The monuments of Washington, DC are beautiful tonight, well lit reminders of what was once the last best hope of the planet. OZ is indeed visually impressive. Yet, OZ is rapidly becoming an empty facade where the streets are paved in worthless greenbacks. The wheels of America's government still turn smoothly, its entitlements, earmarks and various and sundry wars, humming like a fine tooled machine fueled by endless debt. And, the weather is delightful tonight, crisp, clear and cool. It's after midnight and we are safe for at least a few hours, Congress has adjourned for the evening and the Wizard sleeps.
However, the fate of the nation hangs in the balance. Financial markets are in turmoil. Tomorrow Congress will continue to debate the terms and conditions of the "Mother of all Bailouts."
OZ, this mythical bastion of Capitalism and free markets, has become something akin to a National Socialist State. Consider on the one hand the "Storm Troopers" of the Department of Homeland Security using fear to justify tyranny who are a matched pair with thousands of SWAT teams intent on imprisioning more people in both absolute and per capita terms than any other nation on earth in a futile effort to win a "War on Drugs." America has become a police state. Meanwhile, on the other hand, companies deemed "too big to fail" are being taken over by a government and thus insulated from the consequences of their mistakes and their corruption. The "Land of the free and the home of the brave" has become a phantom or a figmant of imaginative spin doctors.
Nobody knows how the masters of our universal debt, America's creditors, will react. If the Asians, Indians, Arabs and Europeans don't approve of the terms of the "Mother of all Bailouts," they could sell their multi trillion dollar currency stash and call their multi trillion dollars in government notes; dumping their assets like so much sand into the fine tuned gearbox of America's debt based Empire and dismantling the "shining city on the hill." Of course the resulting disorder might consume them as well. That consideration might yet preserve the status quo for a time. Where will it all end? Who can know?
Meanwhile those who contend to become the new Wizard stalk the countryside. What to they think? Not much. What do they really say? Even less. They would rather talk about something else; almost anything else. The current financial melt down is beyond their comprehension. One calls for "Change," yet represents the status quo of a generation of failed policies. The other is comitted to the maintainence of Empire and continuation of the never ending war, while confessing he doesn't understand economics. The focus of the race has devolved to identity politics revolving around the race of the Presidential nominee of one party and the sex of the Vice Presidential nominee of the other party. America's media, political elites and the vast majority of American voters really have no clue as to what really matters.
It is said that when Rome burned Nero played the fiddle. One doubts that any of the national candidates who would be the new Wizard have enough musical talent to emulate him. Yet make no mistake, OZ is engulfed in financial flames lit four score and fifteen years by the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913; creating a fiat currency inspired insanity. The consequences of those decisions can't be avoided much longer.
The moral of this story is: Buy precious metals.
However, the fate of the nation hangs in the balance. Financial markets are in turmoil. Tomorrow Congress will continue to debate the terms and conditions of the "Mother of all Bailouts."
OZ, this mythical bastion of Capitalism and free markets, has become something akin to a National Socialist State. Consider on the one hand the "Storm Troopers" of the Department of Homeland Security using fear to justify tyranny who are a matched pair with thousands of SWAT teams intent on imprisioning more people in both absolute and per capita terms than any other nation on earth in a futile effort to win a "War on Drugs." America has become a police state. Meanwhile, on the other hand, companies deemed "too big to fail" are being taken over by a government and thus insulated from the consequences of their mistakes and their corruption. The "Land of the free and the home of the brave" has become a phantom or a figmant of imaginative spin doctors.
Nobody knows how the masters of our universal debt, America's creditors, will react. If the Asians, Indians, Arabs and Europeans don't approve of the terms of the "Mother of all Bailouts," they could sell their multi trillion dollar currency stash and call their multi trillion dollars in government notes; dumping their assets like so much sand into the fine tuned gearbox of America's debt based Empire and dismantling the "shining city on the hill." Of course the resulting disorder might consume them as well. That consideration might yet preserve the status quo for a time. Where will it all end? Who can know?
Meanwhile those who contend to become the new Wizard stalk the countryside. What to they think? Not much. What do they really say? Even less. They would rather talk about something else; almost anything else. The current financial melt down is beyond their comprehension. One calls for "Change," yet represents the status quo of a generation of failed policies. The other is comitted to the maintainence of Empire and continuation of the never ending war, while confessing he doesn't understand economics. The focus of the race has devolved to identity politics revolving around the race of the Presidential nominee of one party and the sex of the Vice Presidential nominee of the other party. America's media, political elites and the vast majority of American voters really have no clue as to what really matters.
It is said that when Rome burned Nero played the fiddle. One doubts that any of the national candidates who would be the new Wizard have enough musical talent to emulate him. Yet make no mistake, OZ is engulfed in financial flames lit four score and fifteen years by the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913; creating a fiat currency inspired insanity. The consequences of those decisions can't be avoided much longer.
The moral of this story is: Buy precious metals.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Three Mysteries of Partisan Politics
We are 50 days (plus or minus) from the next election. It is mysterious to The Rainmaker how so much "Sound and Fury" could signify so little. The political communication seems empty, meaningless and without value.
Consider just these two examples:
First: The financial markets seem to be imploding and the candidates are AWOL, failing to even mention the $50 trillion dollars of current debt on the books, which doesn't begin to account for unfunded liabilities such as Social Security, Medicare, pensions and such.
Second: The candidates abhor the failure of the health market but basically pander to voters promising universal coverage and affordability to all while somehow missing the fact that Medicare is going cash flow negative at some point within the first term of the winning candidate.
Those two examples merely typify the disconnect between the candidates and reality. This disconnect can be attributed to the lust for power and glory silencing any meaningful dialogue while we debate the meaning and significance of lipstick, pigs and lipstick on pigs.
The three mysteries are even more troubling.
The first mystery is the Democratic Mystery. While the Democratic Party champions personal freedom of speech, association, sexuality and religion it cares little for economic freedom and property rights. In other words you are free to do whatever you want but what is yours is ours if it is necessary to win a few votes.
The second mystery is the Republican Mystery. While the Republican Party champions economic freedom it stifles individual liberty in most respects. In other words, your ownership of property is sacrosanct but your body is not your own.
The final mystery is the Statist Mystery. The slavish and rabid devotion to the health, well being and primacy of the State is totally incomprehensible. The founders believed the individual to be sovereign. But while both major political parties purport to celebrate individual liberty, both seem to have forgotten two pillars of limited government included in the Bill of Rights.
The 9th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
The 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The Powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the states respectively or to the people."
Over the past couple of centuries we have ceased to be personally sovereign and have become chattel of the State. How else can one explain the reality we experience in our day to day lives.
Imagine Ben Franklin being forced to remove his shoes and coat and subject his luggage to search in order to travel, foregoing his right to be secure from search and seizure guaranteed to him (as well as to you and me) in the fourth amendment to the Constitution.
Indeed it was Franklin who said, "They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security." Consider this the next time you transit an airport. Do the buffoons of the TSA really accomplish anything beyond making a silly show of officious pseudo security?
Enough of the digression, the Rainmaker will return to the underlying point.
The bottom line is the current reality is nonsensical to the point of absurdity. The government of the United States of America does a poor job of securing the inalienable rights invoked in the Declaration of Independence that include "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."
What exactly are you going to do about that? Probably not enough!
Consider just these two examples:
First: The financial markets seem to be imploding and the candidates are AWOL, failing to even mention the $50 trillion dollars of current debt on the books, which doesn't begin to account for unfunded liabilities such as Social Security, Medicare, pensions and such.
Second: The candidates abhor the failure of the health market but basically pander to voters promising universal coverage and affordability to all while somehow missing the fact that Medicare is going cash flow negative at some point within the first term of the winning candidate.
Those two examples merely typify the disconnect between the candidates and reality. This disconnect can be attributed to the lust for power and glory silencing any meaningful dialogue while we debate the meaning and significance of lipstick, pigs and lipstick on pigs.
The three mysteries are even more troubling.
The first mystery is the Democratic Mystery. While the Democratic Party champions personal freedom of speech, association, sexuality and religion it cares little for economic freedom and property rights. In other words you are free to do whatever you want but what is yours is ours if it is necessary to win a few votes.
The second mystery is the Republican Mystery. While the Republican Party champions economic freedom it stifles individual liberty in most respects. In other words, your ownership of property is sacrosanct but your body is not your own.
The final mystery is the Statist Mystery. The slavish and rabid devotion to the health, well being and primacy of the State is totally incomprehensible. The founders believed the individual to be sovereign. But while both major political parties purport to celebrate individual liberty, both seem to have forgotten two pillars of limited government included in the Bill of Rights.
The 9th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
The 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The Powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the states respectively or to the people."
Over the past couple of centuries we have ceased to be personally sovereign and have become chattel of the State. How else can one explain the reality we experience in our day to day lives.
Imagine Ben Franklin being forced to remove his shoes and coat and subject his luggage to search in order to travel, foregoing his right to be secure from search and seizure guaranteed to him (as well as to you and me) in the fourth amendment to the Constitution.
Indeed it was Franklin who said, "They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security." Consider this the next time you transit an airport. Do the buffoons of the TSA really accomplish anything beyond making a silly show of officious pseudo security?
Enough of the digression, the Rainmaker will return to the underlying point.
The bottom line is the current reality is nonsensical to the point of absurdity. The government of the United States of America does a poor job of securing the inalienable rights invoked in the Declaration of Independence that include "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."
What exactly are you going to do about that? Probably not enough!
Friday, September 12, 2008
A Slow Day in Arlington, Virginia
Today while walking to the market to provision for the weekend your faithful Rainmaker witnessed a fascinating episode. Wilson Blvd. is a one way street passing through the Roslyn neighborhood in Arlington, Virginia. Some poor soul had apparently gotten discombobulated and driven the wrong way on that street. Her car headed east on the one way west bound bound Wilson Blvd., was pulled over to side of the road at about the 1600 block of Wilson adjacent to the Red Hot and Blue restaurant. Obviously this was a major infraction for the driver who appeared to be a soccer Mom (sans lipstick) had the attention of two police cars, a fire truck and ten "public safety employees" who parked their vehicles helter skelter across the street slowing rush hour traffic. While one of their number, obviously the one with the least seniority, wrote the hapless soccer Mom a ticket the other nine guardians of public order and fire protection stood around having an obviously grand old time discussing who knows what but probably "life, love and the neon rainbow."
Walking back from the market almost 25 minutes later the situation remained unchanged. The Rainmaker recognizes that in the wake of the 9/11 events it is impossible for local governments to rein in these police and fire fighters, heroic paragons of America's first line of defense in the neverending "War on Terror." Nevertheless the deployment of resources witnessed in the 1600 block of Wilson Blvd. this afternoon gives pause. Obviously there wasn't much going on. If 10 public employees respond and nine spend at least 30 minutes watching the tenth write a ticket then there must be a lot of excees capacity in the system.
The Rainmaker focused on this minor traffic accident for two reasons. First, the dissproportionate resource allocation, sending 10 officers/firefighters to deal with a non injury traffic infraction. It must have been a slow day in Arlington, Virginia. Second, this seemed a perfectly good example of what in part caused the typical small town such as Vallejo, California to declare bankruptcy last year.
It turns out that Vallejo has a police and fire force that can earn (or rather collect) over $300,000 each in a give year for keeping the city safe for democracy, truth, justice and the "American Way." In Vallejo, 74% of the city budget was devoted to providing "fair" compensation to the public safety sector of teh town's budget. A police officer or fire fighter can earn $300,000 annually in Vallejo.
The Rainmaker wonders how much longer these inequities can continue before the system finds itself in a state of collapse.
Walking back from the market almost 25 minutes later the situation remained unchanged. The Rainmaker recognizes that in the wake of the 9/11 events it is impossible for local governments to rein in these police and fire fighters, heroic paragons of America's first line of defense in the neverending "War on Terror." Nevertheless the deployment of resources witnessed in the 1600 block of Wilson Blvd. this afternoon gives pause. Obviously there wasn't much going on. If 10 public employees respond and nine spend at least 30 minutes watching the tenth write a ticket then there must be a lot of excees capacity in the system.
The Rainmaker focused on this minor traffic accident for two reasons. First, the dissproportionate resource allocation, sending 10 officers/firefighters to deal with a non injury traffic infraction. It must have been a slow day in Arlington, Virginia. Second, this seemed a perfectly good example of what in part caused the typical small town such as Vallejo, California to declare bankruptcy last year.
It turns out that Vallejo has a police and fire force that can earn (or rather collect) over $300,000 each in a give year for keeping the city safe for democracy, truth, justice and the "American Way." In Vallejo, 74% of the city budget was devoted to providing "fair" compensation to the public safety sector of teh town's budget. A police officer or fire fighter can earn $300,000 annually in Vallejo.
The Rainmaker wonders how much longer these inequities can continue before the system finds itself in a state of collapse.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Who am I and why am I here?
It was a mere sixteen years ago that the imortal words, "Who am I and why am I here?" were uttered by Admiral Stockdale, Ross Perot's running mate in his Vice Presidential debate with Al Gore and Dan Quayle. The quote earned Stockdale an ill deserved spot on Saturday Night Live where he was mercilessly parodied.
No, this is not a conversation about Vice Presidential nominees, however tempting that might be especially in light of what perhaps appears to be developing as Senator McCain's "Eagleton Moment." Eagleton of course refers to the sequence of events thirty-six years ago when George McGovern's ill fated choice of Tom Eagleton as his running mate effectively destroyed any hope McGovern might have had to win the Presidency. Is this a--not quite--instant "Palin Replay" of the Eagleton fiasco? For the record, The Rainmaker believes that Ms. Palin will ultimately be a net positive to the McCain campaign.
But all this is merely a digression and a distraction.
Actually Stockdale's bungled opening line is the ultimate question each of us faces in our life, "Who am I and why am I here?"
Are we merely a fluke of the Universe? Or is there some significant purpose to our life? Honestly, most of us don't know. Those of us to think we know can't really be sure until that "turn out the lights, the party is over..." moment when we breathe our last breath.
"Who am I and why am I here?" In that context, it's really a pretty good question. Perhaps it really is the ultimate question.
In Douglass Adams' "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy," the "ultimate" question was submitted to "the" super computer that chugged and calculated away until the answer, "42" was delivered. But, the actual "ultimate" question was unknown and perhaps unknowable so the answer "42" is essentially meaningless. Obviously the underlying or "ultimate" question is very important.
Whatever the question was that resulted in the answer "42," it surely was not, "Who am I and why am I here?"
So, what is the answer to the question: "Who am I and why am I here?" Each of us spends a lifetime finding out. But the answer isn't always the same when we ask the question over time.
Actually as we pass through a lifetime of experiences, the answers are typically pretty pedestrian and not at all profound. We seem to take refuge in the superficial external characteristics of our lives to answer this ultimate question, "Who am I and why am I here?"
As a child we answer that question by saying, "I am my parent's daughter or son, here to either please or rebel."
As a teen we are what apparently what we see in the mirror. We are a thug or a geek or a nerd or a scholar, an athelete, a cheer leader or a confused, zit covered kid. Most of us are the last most of the time. We are ultimately all about self gratification at that stage of our lives.
As a young adult we are an extension of our group. Perhaps we are a soldier, or a college student , a member of a sports team, an accountant, a truck driver, a cowboy, an activist, a farmer or even a competitor in a beauty contest. We seek to attain status within the context of the group.
Eventually most of us are defined or define ourselves by our families, our jobs, our positions and how much money we have. Some of us assume the identity of an organization, perhaps a religious, advocacy, political, corporate, labor, national or ethnic group. We strive to support and advance the interests of our families, our companies, our nation or our world.
Ultimately at the end of our lives we leave this world with exactly what we brought to this world, ourselves. Then ultimately we finally come to define, whether we want to or not, the answer to the qusetions, "Who am I and why am I here?" What exactly is my "self?"
We recognize at some point that we are defining who we are and why we are in what are actually pretty superficial measures of our selves. Most of these definitions are externally measured and really have nothing to do with who we really are or why we are really here. Who is the "I" who my Mother delivers into the world? Who is the "I" who breaths my last breath? Is it the same "I?" Why did "I" experience all of that over the course of my life?
Or, is there ever even really an "I?" Perhaps the Buddah is right and the "real world" is all an illusion..."Maya." But what if "I" am also an illusion?
Now that is something to think about.
No, this is not a conversation about Vice Presidential nominees, however tempting that might be especially in light of what perhaps appears to be developing as Senator McCain's "Eagleton Moment." Eagleton of course refers to the sequence of events thirty-six years ago when George McGovern's ill fated choice of Tom Eagleton as his running mate effectively destroyed any hope McGovern might have had to win the Presidency. Is this a--not quite--instant "Palin Replay" of the Eagleton fiasco? For the record, The Rainmaker believes that Ms. Palin will ultimately be a net positive to the McCain campaign.
But all this is merely a digression and a distraction.
Actually Stockdale's bungled opening line is the ultimate question each of us faces in our life, "Who am I and why am I here?"
Are we merely a fluke of the Universe? Or is there some significant purpose to our life? Honestly, most of us don't know. Those of us to think we know can't really be sure until that "turn out the lights, the party is over..." moment when we breathe our last breath.
"Who am I and why am I here?" In that context, it's really a pretty good question. Perhaps it really is the ultimate question.
In Douglass Adams' "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy," the "ultimate" question was submitted to "the" super computer that chugged and calculated away until the answer, "42" was delivered. But, the actual "ultimate" question was unknown and perhaps unknowable so the answer "42" is essentially meaningless. Obviously the underlying or "ultimate" question is very important.
Whatever the question was that resulted in the answer "42," it surely was not, "Who am I and why am I here?"
So, what is the answer to the question: "Who am I and why am I here?" Each of us spends a lifetime finding out. But the answer isn't always the same when we ask the question over time.
Actually as we pass through a lifetime of experiences, the answers are typically pretty pedestrian and not at all profound. We seem to take refuge in the superficial external characteristics of our lives to answer this ultimate question, "Who am I and why am I here?"
As a child we answer that question by saying, "I am my parent's daughter or son, here to either please or rebel."
As a teen we are what apparently what we see in the mirror. We are a thug or a geek or a nerd or a scholar, an athelete, a cheer leader or a confused, zit covered kid. Most of us are the last most of the time. We are ultimately all about self gratification at that stage of our lives.
As a young adult we are an extension of our group. Perhaps we are a soldier, or a college student , a member of a sports team, an accountant, a truck driver, a cowboy, an activist, a farmer or even a competitor in a beauty contest. We seek to attain status within the context of the group.
Eventually most of us are defined or define ourselves by our families, our jobs, our positions and how much money we have. Some of us assume the identity of an organization, perhaps a religious, advocacy, political, corporate, labor, national or ethnic group. We strive to support and advance the interests of our families, our companies, our nation or our world.
Ultimately at the end of our lives we leave this world with exactly what we brought to this world, ourselves. Then ultimately we finally come to define, whether we want to or not, the answer to the qusetions, "Who am I and why am I here?" What exactly is my "self?"
We recognize at some point that we are defining who we are and why we are in what are actually pretty superficial measures of our selves. Most of these definitions are externally measured and really have nothing to do with who we really are or why we are really here. Who is the "I" who my Mother delivers into the world? Who is the "I" who breaths my last breath? Is it the same "I?" Why did "I" experience all of that over the course of my life?
Or, is there ever even really an "I?" Perhaps the Buddah is right and the "real world" is all an illusion..."Maya." But what if "I" am also an illusion?
Now that is something to think about.
Friday, August 29, 2008
The Sovereign Individual
Most of us never really think about it but our system of government rests on a base level assumption that the individual citizens of this or any state are sovereign.
Sovereign, what does that word mean? According to Merriam-Webster's dictionary it means: "one possessing or held to possess Sovereignty," or more specifically, "one that exercises authority with a limited sphere," or finally, "an acknowledged leader."
In the case of the United States of America the Preamble of the Constitution acknowledges the supreme power or authority of the people who come together to create the government. The Preamble says in full:
"We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
In addition to that implicit acknowledgement of the supremacy of the individual as the source of authority to sustain the legitimacy of the state, there is two other very important amendments to the Constitution appearing in what has come to be known as the "Bill of Rights:"
Amendment Nine reads in full:
"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
Amendment Ten reads in full:
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."
Taken together those three brief passages acknowledge the supremacy of the people as the ultimate source of power and authority delegated to the government.
Over the past couple of hundred years the pendulum has swung pretty far away from the assumptions implicit in those statements. Now the state has come to assume more and more power, the people are currently (even after the dreaded Bush tax cuts) paying about 300% of what serfs paid the Lords when power was delegated to ruling families via the "Divine Right of Kings" under which system the people were mere vassals of the state. Today the vast majority of people meekly submit to various indignities: Random searches, SWAT team raids, drunk driving traffic check points, presumed guilty till proven innocent audits by taxing authorities, significant limitations on free speech (especially on college campuses--making a mockery of the term "academic freedom"), random drug testing and even partial disrobing in order to board an airplane.
The question is how much farther can the pendulum swing before it begins to reverse course?
The evolution of technology mentioned in The Rainmaker's most recent post might be indicative of a shift in power and a return of power (sovereignty) to the people.
This shift was predicted back in 1997 by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg in their book "The Sovereign Individual," which The Rainmaker has read and heartily recommends. Davidson and Rees-Mogg aren't sure that the concept of the nation state is viable. They point out that governments spouting patriotism tend to manipulate citizens into supporting social policies, monetary policies, wars and ever more intrusive government creating a swarm of unintended consequences that eventually can destroy the state's viability. When the book was written in 1995/1996 and even when the book was published this theory seemed like a stretch.
But times change and at about the same time the book hit the shelves a guy named Zimmerman released an encryption program for computer files and communications called PGP ("Pretty Good Protection"), which may prove to be the death knell of the modern nation state. Actually the more likely result is a more level playing field between the state and its citizens.
PGP together with online currencies can empower a Sovereign Individual to take real steps to assure his or her privacy, financial independence, physical safety and political liberty. Thus the equilibrium that was disturbed in the United States during the 100 years between the creation of the first national bank and the eventual imposition of the Federal Reserve System/United States Income Tax inducing the pendulum to swing towards ever greater state power at the expense of individual liberty might be checked and the pendulum could be starting to reverse its course towards greater individual Sovereignty.
The outcome is unclear. Stay tuned.
Sovereign, what does that word mean? According to Merriam-Webster's dictionary it means: "one possessing or held to possess Sovereignty," or more specifically, "one that exercises authority with a limited sphere," or finally, "an acknowledged leader."
In the case of the United States of America the Preamble of the Constitution acknowledges the supreme power or authority of the people who come together to create the government. The Preamble says in full:
"We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
In addition to that implicit acknowledgement of the supremacy of the individual as the source of authority to sustain the legitimacy of the state, there is two other very important amendments to the Constitution appearing in what has come to be known as the "Bill of Rights:"
Amendment Nine reads in full:
"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
Amendment Ten reads in full:
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."
Taken together those three brief passages acknowledge the supremacy of the people as the ultimate source of power and authority delegated to the government.
Over the past couple of hundred years the pendulum has swung pretty far away from the assumptions implicit in those statements. Now the state has come to assume more and more power, the people are currently (even after the dreaded Bush tax cuts) paying about 300% of what serfs paid the Lords when power was delegated to ruling families via the "Divine Right of Kings" under which system the people were mere vassals of the state. Today the vast majority of people meekly submit to various indignities: Random searches, SWAT team raids, drunk driving traffic check points, presumed guilty till proven innocent audits by taxing authorities, significant limitations on free speech (especially on college campuses--making a mockery of the term "academic freedom"), random drug testing and even partial disrobing in order to board an airplane.
The question is how much farther can the pendulum swing before it begins to reverse course?
The evolution of technology mentioned in The Rainmaker's most recent post might be indicative of a shift in power and a return of power (sovereignty) to the people.
This shift was predicted back in 1997 by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg in their book "The Sovereign Individual," which The Rainmaker has read and heartily recommends. Davidson and Rees-Mogg aren't sure that the concept of the nation state is viable. They point out that governments spouting patriotism tend to manipulate citizens into supporting social policies, monetary policies, wars and ever more intrusive government creating a swarm of unintended consequences that eventually can destroy the state's viability. When the book was written in 1995/1996 and even when the book was published this theory seemed like a stretch.
But times change and at about the same time the book hit the shelves a guy named Zimmerman released an encryption program for computer files and communications called PGP ("Pretty Good Protection"), which may prove to be the death knell of the modern nation state. Actually the more likely result is a more level playing field between the state and its citizens.
PGP together with online currencies can empower a Sovereign Individual to take real steps to assure his or her privacy, financial independence, physical safety and political liberty. Thus the equilibrium that was disturbed in the United States during the 100 years between the creation of the first national bank and the eventual imposition of the Federal Reserve System/United States Income Tax inducing the pendulum to swing towards ever greater state power at the expense of individual liberty might be checked and the pendulum could be starting to reverse its course towards greater individual Sovereignty.
The outcome is unclear. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Technology and the State
According to Martin Van Creveld in "The Rise and Decline of the State," techology plays a crucial role at each end of the spectrum. Beginning in 1300 AD and continuing until 1975 the state was enhanced by technology; however, beginning in 1975 and continuing until the present the trend has been for technology to be more problematic to the state.
Advances in such diverse technological areas as printing, weapons, medical treatment, sanitation, farming, communications, media and transportation all served to enhance the state for most of the past several hundred years.
Yet in the past 38 years technoligical progress in many areas has appeared to damage the state's viability:
Advances in such diverse technological areas as printing, weapons, medical treatment, sanitation, farming, communications, media and transportation all served to enhance the state for most of the past several hundred years.
Yet in the past 38 years technoligical progress in many areas has appeared to damage the state's viability:
- Transportation: The development of the shipping container, piggyback rail cars, and jumbo jets capable of hauling large amounts of freight dramatically enhanced trade. As trade increased the interdependence of states upon each other, lowered individual state's freedom of independent action as well as each states economic independence. Increased efficiency in the shipment of data is equally challenging. For example, in the era of global currency trading that approaches $4 trillion each day, it is now difficult if not impossible for any state or group of states to actually control the value of any state's money.
- Media: The ability of the nightly news to deliver graphic images of the costs of war in real time or to show either the brutality of local police or the crackdown on disidents in totalitarian (or for that matter "democratic" societies) as well as the media's ability to deliver images of the "good life" all combined to be inherently subservisive to the power of the state. The advent of decentralized media delivered via the Internet has challenged the major media outlets and in many cases reduced their news coverage ability to the point that they are becoming little more than celebrity news services.
- The Internet: Originally the Internet was built as a means of networked communication assuring a state's liklihood of surviving modern war and weapons systems. More and more, especially with the development and implementation of encryption tools, the Internet has become the preferred means of linking political dissidents, coordinating asymetrical warfare (terrorism) and facilitating tax evadors/political drop outs. This evolution has become perhaps the most significant challange to the power of the state in centuries.
- Weapons: The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, coupled with demonstrated state inability to reliably account for much less control the proliferation, theft and use of those weapons of mass distruciton is a real threat to the state. If the state cannot maintain is monopoly on violence to protect its citizens, what good is it?
- Entitlements: The use of entitlements based on bad economic models to buy loyalty or at least silence dissent is becoming a significant problem to industrialized western democracies who are faced with the inability to keep the promises they have made. In France successive governments have been paralyzed by general strikes and violence in the streets when they have attempted to rationalize benefits by bringing them to sustainable levels. This is likely to spread until eventually the state is unable to survive economically. Already citizens of the European Union who live in Germany are refusing to accept Euros they can see (by reading the currency) are created in less frugal member states such as France and Italy.
- Immigration: States are demonstrating an inability to control and secure their borders throughout the world. Poor people, oppressed minorities and political dissidents as well as skilled workers and tax fugitives are voting with their feet. Cultural conflicts undermining the cohesiveness of states are becoming more prevelant, whether between native born and muslim immigrants in Western Europe or illegal immigrants and the native born in the United States.
- Medical Science: Advances in medical science are significantly lowering infant mortality, increasing life expectancy and lowering birth rates. The demographic consequences of these trends are already a major threat to the viability of states such as Italy and Japan. However it's not just industrial societies that are experiencing lower birth rates. Virtually every state is experiencing this phenomena, even fundamentalist theocracies in the Islamic world and traditionally Roman Catholic societies in Mexico, Central and South America are seeing significant declines in the birth rate. Thanks to the "One Child" policy, the demographics in the People's Republic of China are making it a state with one of the most quickly aging populations populations on the planet. The implications of this are not widely understood yet but the result will likely be increased political instability around the world.
It is impossible to predict with any certainty where these trends will take civilization and whether the state is doomed or will be able to adapt. Next, The Rainmaker will consider one potential scenario, the rise of "The Sovereign Individual."
Saturday, August 16, 2008
The Decline of the State
"The state, which since the middle of the 17th Century has been the most important and most characteristic of all modern institutions, is in decline. From Western Europe to Africa, many existing states are either combining into larger communities or falling apart. Many of their functions are being taken over by a variety of organizations which, whatever their precise nature, are not states." This was written by Martin van Creveld, a Professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem in his book "The Rise and Decline of the State," published by the Cambridge University Press in 1999.
Who could have imagined as they sat in Number 10 Downing Street at the end of the 19th Century that within 100 years the British Empire on which the Sun never sat, would be reduced to Great Britain and Northern Ireland or that there would be serious talk in Wales and Scotland of secession.
Who could have imagined as they stood atop the Kremlin watching the annual May Day parade in 1980 that in a little over a decade the USSR would be no more and the Berlin Wall would be dismantled by the people of a united Germany?
Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia are no more. Belgium is in the midst of dividing itself. Ethnic groups such as the Basques and Kurds are eager to part ways with Spain and Turkey. Russia is busily dismantling Georgia, birth place of Joseph Stalin.
How many Americans are aware of the current movements in Vermont and Hawaii to secede from the United States?
To our south Mexico has been fighting for a decade or more to hang onto Chiapas, while Sonora and other northern areas find more and more in common with Arizona, New Mexico, California and Texas. In western Canada and the northwestern United States there is a growing affinity.
In "The Untied States of America," Juan Enriquez visualizes alternative realities in which the United States could grow to as many as sixty states or shrink dramatically from the current fifty within a generation. His speculation is twenty years after a similar analysis by Joel Garreau gave us "The Nine Nations of North America."
And, in his book "The Black Swan" Nissim Nicholas Taleb describes the disintegration of his country, Lebanon.
What is behind this uncertainty regarding state stability? According to the analysis by van Creveld, the state rose to dominance as it became able to achieve a monopoly on violence and the supply of money while becoming a nanny to its citizens.
The primary function of the state in van Creveld's formulation was to wage War on other states. War requires the ability to raise money, tax, organize and mobilize. War also provides an emotional bond and unifying force to bind the state. War necessitates the state. As Randolph Bourne famous essay points out in its title: "War is the Health of the State." Another meditation on this premise is "The Report from Iron Mountain" most probably written by Leonard Lewin and published in 1967.
In the context of creating an emotional bond and a unifying force to bind the citizen to the state, the Olympics are a distant second to War if for no other reason than that the stakes are so much more sane.
Once the expense of War gets to a certain point it becomes advantageous for the state to take control of the medium of exchange and store of value, the money. This enables the state to disguise the true cost of warfare as well as the true cost of the state by the convenient device of debasing the money. Eventually the costs became so high that money became decoupled from any objective measure of value. The ability of a state's money to continue as a medium of exchange is really a function of the willingness of the populace to accept the paper. Put another way, modern state money is really a confidence game.
Simultaneously, in order to demonstrate a value proposition sufficient to justify the state--while keeping the natives satisfied, stifling dissent and creating loyalty--Bismarck came up with the idea of the welfare state. His original system of Social Security, subsequently copied around the world, used the false mathemetics of the proverbial Ponzoi scheme to create the illusion of real and sustainable financial benefits for the individual citizen of the state.
A brilliant analysis of the rise and operation of the American welfare state is, "Dependant on DC" by Charlotte Twight. The Rainmaker suggests you explore Twight's book in depth if you doubt any of the assertions made here about the welfare state.
However, in the last half of the 20th Century the underpinnings of the state became more stressed.
Who could have imagined as they sat in Number 10 Downing Street at the end of the 19th Century that within 100 years the British Empire on which the Sun never sat, would be reduced to Great Britain and Northern Ireland or that there would be serious talk in Wales and Scotland of secession.
Who could have imagined as they stood atop the Kremlin watching the annual May Day parade in 1980 that in a little over a decade the USSR would be no more and the Berlin Wall would be dismantled by the people of a united Germany?
Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia are no more. Belgium is in the midst of dividing itself. Ethnic groups such as the Basques and Kurds are eager to part ways with Spain and Turkey. Russia is busily dismantling Georgia, birth place of Joseph Stalin.
How many Americans are aware of the current movements in Vermont and Hawaii to secede from the United States?
To our south Mexico has been fighting for a decade or more to hang onto Chiapas, while Sonora and other northern areas find more and more in common with Arizona, New Mexico, California and Texas. In western Canada and the northwestern United States there is a growing affinity.
In "The Untied States of America," Juan Enriquez visualizes alternative realities in which the United States could grow to as many as sixty states or shrink dramatically from the current fifty within a generation. His speculation is twenty years after a similar analysis by Joel Garreau gave us "The Nine Nations of North America."
And, in his book "The Black Swan" Nissim Nicholas Taleb describes the disintegration of his country, Lebanon.
What is behind this uncertainty regarding state stability? According to the analysis by van Creveld, the state rose to dominance as it became able to achieve a monopoly on violence and the supply of money while becoming a nanny to its citizens.
The primary function of the state in van Creveld's formulation was to wage War on other states. War requires the ability to raise money, tax, organize and mobilize. War also provides an emotional bond and unifying force to bind the state. War necessitates the state. As Randolph Bourne famous essay points out in its title: "War is the Health of the State." Another meditation on this premise is "The Report from Iron Mountain" most probably written by Leonard Lewin and published in 1967.
In the context of creating an emotional bond and a unifying force to bind the citizen to the state, the Olympics are a distant second to War if for no other reason than that the stakes are so much more sane.
Once the expense of War gets to a certain point it becomes advantageous for the state to take control of the medium of exchange and store of value, the money. This enables the state to disguise the true cost of warfare as well as the true cost of the state by the convenient device of debasing the money. Eventually the costs became so high that money became decoupled from any objective measure of value. The ability of a state's money to continue as a medium of exchange is really a function of the willingness of the populace to accept the paper. Put another way, modern state money is really a confidence game.
Simultaneously, in order to demonstrate a value proposition sufficient to justify the state--while keeping the natives satisfied, stifling dissent and creating loyalty--Bismarck came up with the idea of the welfare state. His original system of Social Security, subsequently copied around the world, used the false mathemetics of the proverbial Ponzoi scheme to create the illusion of real and sustainable financial benefits for the individual citizen of the state.
A brilliant analysis of the rise and operation of the American welfare state is, "Dependant on DC" by Charlotte Twight. The Rainmaker suggests you explore Twight's book in depth if you doubt any of the assertions made here about the welfare state.
However, in the last half of the 20th Century the underpinnings of the state became more stressed.
- Beginning in 1945 the advent and use of nuclear weapons made the prosecution of the state's primary function--War--a more difficult, expensive and risky proposition. Use of these ultimate weapons was effectively denied to Superpower states such as the United States and the USSR, each of which suffered unexpected military reverses in Viet Nam and Afghanistan, but neither deployed nuclear weapons.
- Beginning in the 1970s the inherent unsustainabilty of the welfare state became apparent. For a time most states attempted the expedient of raising the taxes on workers to sustain the vaunted "Social Safety Net," but eventually with payroll taxes approaching 40% in Western Europe the carrying capacities of modern state economies maxed out, resulting in economic stagnation. The people became ever more aware that the welfare state was at best an empty promise and at worse a fraud designed to exploit citizens.
- Beginning n the 1980s the decoupling of state monetary systems from real value led to a series of inflationary spikes, speculative bubbles and collapses continuing into the 21st Century demonstrating to more and more people that currencies of nation states are often worth even less than the paper they are printed on and are really mechanisms to impose hidden taxes on citizens while hiding the true cost of government.
Finally, in the early 21st Century the planet's remaining Superpower became involved in a War with a shadowy group of terrorists that were able to resist the massive power deployed against them, evading defeat, capture and punishment for longer than the Axis powers were able to survive after Pear Harbor. In an effort to mobilize and motivate its citizens the government of the United States embarked on a concerted program of increasing state power, eroding civil liberties and symbolic measures such as forcing travelers to remove clothing and surrender toiletries in order to instill fear and justify loyalty.
The Rainmaker believes that as we move deeper into the 21st Century the relevance and power of the state will continue to wane. States in one form or another will probably continue to exist for the foreseeable future, but they will be a shadow of their former selves sooner rather than later.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Olympics and a Preview of Comming Attractions
Is there anyone else who has watched no part of the Olympics?
The Rainmaker has not seen a single instant of Olympic video. Of course even our concerted effort to avoid Olympic coverage has not been sufficient to escape some print coverage of the games.
The whole Olympic movement serves to perpetuate nationalist identity that is really obsolete as the world enters the 21st Century. Actually the more relavant measures of community are much more local and much more global. The "national" is really much less significant.
To appreciate The Rainmaker's point, read "The Untied States of America" by Juan Enriquez.
More about this over time. But to really appreciate the upcoming conversation read the book.
The Rainmaker has not seen a single instant of Olympic video. Of course even our concerted effort to avoid Olympic coverage has not been sufficient to escape some print coverage of the games.
The whole Olympic movement serves to perpetuate nationalist identity that is really obsolete as the world enters the 21st Century. Actually the more relavant measures of community are much more local and much more global. The "national" is really much less significant.
To appreciate The Rainmaker's point, read "The Untied States of America" by Juan Enriquez.
More about this over time. But to really appreciate the upcoming conversation read the book.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Trivial Pursuits
Who cares who John Edwards slept with? Why do I need to know about Dick Cheney's daughter's sexuality?
Somehow Barack Obama's "rock star status" makes a difference one way or the other regarding his qualifications for the Presidency, but not to me. And somehow Paris Hilton's assessment of John McCain is relevant, but I don't get it.
Oh yes, don't forget that Jackson Browne is an expert on nuclear power...right! Bono is a proverbial paragon of virtue and an authority of all manner of public policy issues from AIDS, to hunger as well as economic development in Africa...and I've got this great bridge in Lake Havasu, Arizona I'd like to sell you!
Although I hasten to point out I have no problem with celebrities who have political opinions when put their money where their mouth is and run for office. People like Ronald Reagan, Jesse Ventura and "The" Arnold--whose last name I can't spell and don't want to look up, because you will all know who I mea--are fine by me. For the record, if I had lived in Texas last election I would have supported Kinky Friedman for Govorner. I am still disappionted that he lost.
Here's a news flash for you, Elvis and Princess Di are still dead. Yet every year we have to endure another meaningless retrospective on their lives. Well both Elvis and the Princess have left the planet and I don't need to read about or watch another television special on his excesses at Graceland or whether the Royal Family had her killed. Geez.
My favorite was this past Sunday in the Washington Post when what must have been two full pages in the newspaper were devoted to a meditation on Madonna's observance of her 50th birthday and what that means not only to you and me but also to modern civilization.
And, please...if I ever hear the name Monica Lewinsky again it will be too soon!
In the immortal words of Rhett Butler, "Frankly my dear I don't give a damn!"
And so it goes.
Somehow Barack Obama's "rock star status" makes a difference one way or the other regarding his qualifications for the Presidency, but not to me. And somehow Paris Hilton's assessment of John McCain is relevant, but I don't get it.
Oh yes, don't forget that Jackson Browne is an expert on nuclear power...right! Bono is a proverbial paragon of virtue and an authority of all manner of public policy issues from AIDS, to hunger as well as economic development in Africa...and I've got this great bridge in Lake Havasu, Arizona I'd like to sell you!
Although I hasten to point out I have no problem with celebrities who have political opinions when put their money where their mouth is and run for office. People like Ronald Reagan, Jesse Ventura and "The" Arnold--whose last name I can't spell and don't want to look up, because you will all know who I mea--are fine by me. For the record, if I had lived in Texas last election I would have supported Kinky Friedman for Govorner. I am still disappionted that he lost.
Here's a news flash for you, Elvis and Princess Di are still dead. Yet every year we have to endure another meaningless retrospective on their lives. Well both Elvis and the Princess have left the planet and I don't need to read about or watch another television special on his excesses at Graceland or whether the Royal Family had her killed. Geez.
My favorite was this past Sunday in the Washington Post when what must have been two full pages in the newspaper were devoted to a meditation on Madonna's observance of her 50th birthday and what that means not only to you and me but also to modern civilization.
And, please...if I ever hear the name Monica Lewinsky again it will be too soon!
In the immortal words of Rhett Butler, "Frankly my dear I don't give a damn!"
And so it goes.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part Three
While the price of crude oil has risen in terms of these national currencies, it remains relatively stable in terms of gold. Crude oil is not becoming intrinsically more expensive, rather, the purchasing power of these national currencies continues to diminish. In fact the price of crude oil has remained essentially unchanged for decades when measured in terms of gold. Measurements of other commodities against national currencies and other precious metals will resemble this chart.When measured against gold, most western currencies saddled the the high cost of maintaining a social welfare safety net for their populations are losing purchasing power due to government's deficit spending. In the United States that trend is exacerbated by excessive military spending relative to other countries. If Asian currencies were charted the result would demonstrate a less extreme loss of purchasing power due to cheap labor, higher savings rates and relatively lower expenditures for military and social welfare segments of their economies.
When measured against other western currencies the U. S. dollar is losing its purchasing power at a faster rate. The Rainmaker believes that much of the discrepancy in relative purchasing power between the dollar, pound and euro is largely due to two factors. First is the incredibly bad PR associated with the current American Administration. Second is the fiscal policy of the United States that is incurring record deficits to simultaneously fund two wars, entitlements and the financial sector bail out of the week.
What's next?
Candidly, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. It will take time to replenish all the money collected and misspent by a succession of administrations out of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds. These surpluses have been squandered over more than a generation. That bipartisan breach of fiduciary duty by our elected leadership can't be fixed over night. Given that not one of the major candidates for President throughout 2007 and so far in 2008 has been willing to admit there is a current problem is not cause for optimism. These problems will probably take as long to fix as they took to create. And, the repair work won't even begin until our elected leaders are willing to admit that there is a problem.
How can we protect ourselves, our families and our livlihoods?
The advice is deceptively simple. Work hard, reduce risk, get out of debt, save and put part of your estate into precious metals. Work with your financial advisor to design a personal strategy that maximizes revenue, reduces risk exposure, increases savings and diversifies a portion (how big a portion you should discuss with your financial advisor) of your estate into extractive industries as well as gold, silver and platinum. Follow the yellow brick road.
Friday, August 8, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part Two
Had the gold standard not been abandoned in 1971, nobody today would be talking about the rising price of crude oil or gas at the pump. Why? Simply because the price of crude oil would not be rising. The chart above relates to the price of crude oil compared in dollars versus gold. Charts for virtually any commodity, for example coal, corn or beef would relate similarly to any precious metal such as platinum or silver.
What has gone hay wire with America? Why do we feel we have run off the road into a ditch? Is it really all about fall out from the aftermath of Septemeber 11, 2001 and the wars that followed? Or could there be a deeper problem?
Perhaps there is another explanation that doesn't involve just the events since September 2001 but goes deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nation states structure their currencies. What does it all mean?
To understand what it means one must be clear about the question, or really to understand what is "it?"
The meaning isn't so difficult to decipher if one approaches the problem from the proper perspective. Is the intrinsic value of oil or an overnight stay in London that much higher than it was a decade or a year ago? In a word, NO! Or, is the intrinsic value of the dollar that much lower? In a word YES! So, what is the explanation?
This is what The Rainmaker believes "it" means.
Let's begin with what the journalists would call "deep background," which comes in two parts.
First, for more than four generations America's elected leaders, business leaders, our friends and neighbors as well as (perhaps especially) our bankers from the Federal Reserve on down to the community bank next door have busily squandered America's inheiratance. This represents a moral crises involving our leaders and ourselves. The cure starts at home with each of us living within our means, saving, accepting that there really isn't any such thing as a free lunch and building a better future one day at a time by making the right decision in the present. Then America's leadership must focus on the real problems and leave the side shows of lifestyle choice, culture wars and celebrity politics behind forevermore. Until these changes are made the decline begun back in 1913 with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act and the Federal Income Tax, will continue.
Second, the American dream has captured the imagination of people around the world. Chinese, Indians ane Brazilians--as well as the rest of the world--all want what we've got. Their economies are cranking up to deliver the goods. However, those countries, not to mention the Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese and Chileans have a built in advantage in the sense their economies don't have to finance the American military industrial complex, supporting troops garrisoned in more than 100 countries around the world and spending more on the military than all the other countries in the world combined. Nor do those countries sustain a social welfare safety net for their workers. These aspiring Chinese, Indians and Brazilians--and all the rest--are driving demand for commodities, especially oil, creating shortages and posing a serious threat to the relative value of the dollar. In short, goods and services are going to continue to cost more in dollars and dollars are going to continue to be worth less and less against other currencies until and unless we get our act together.
The Rainmaker does not believe that this is a problem unique to the dollar. Why? Read on!
Well to really grasp this one must understand that while the dollar's slide is an American phenomena it is also the symptom of a more serious global problem. Why? Well the dollar, like most national currencies is backed not by real wealth but by debt created by national banks secured only by the full faith and credit of the nation. The Federal Reserve, a privately owned institution, loans currency into existence and the United States (actually the tax payers) guarantees those loans will be repaid. Taxes levied on the income of individuals and corproations pay the debt service. The dollar isn't backed by precious metals. The dollar is backed by our capacity to pay taxes.
One can make the argument that the dollar is not nearly as weak as it currently seems (June 2007) and the current valuation, especially against the Euro is really a function of the incredibly bad PR associated with the current Administration. In fact the fundamentals of the Euro are in many ways worse than the fundamental foundations underpining the dollar. European countries have much more significant entitlement problems, less productive work forces, lower savings rates and higher taxes than Americans. This should eventually enable the dollar to rebound against European currencies and make London hotel rooms a little more affordable.
However these arguments don't hold against the Asian competition.
So, what is the real story? The bottom line is that most all national currencies are ultimately secured by the ability of the national government to collect taxes sufficient to carry the debt due the national bank issuing the currency. How can one judge the severity of our currenty problem? The answer is to look at commodity pricing and currency valuation compared to gold.
Perhaps there is another explanation that doesn't involve just the events since September 2001 but goes deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nation states structure their currencies. What does it all mean?
To understand what it means one must be clear about the question, or really to understand what is "it?"
The meaning isn't so difficult to decipher if one approaches the problem from the proper perspective. Is the intrinsic value of oil or an overnight stay in London that much higher than it was a decade or a year ago? In a word, NO! Or, is the intrinsic value of the dollar that much lower? In a word YES! So, what is the explanation?
This is what The Rainmaker believes "it" means.
Let's begin with what the journalists would call "deep background," which comes in two parts.
First, for more than four generations America's elected leaders, business leaders, our friends and neighbors as well as (perhaps especially) our bankers from the Federal Reserve on down to the community bank next door have busily squandered America's inheiratance. This represents a moral crises involving our leaders and ourselves. The cure starts at home with each of us living within our means, saving, accepting that there really isn't any such thing as a free lunch and building a better future one day at a time by making the right decision in the present. Then America's leadership must focus on the real problems and leave the side shows of lifestyle choice, culture wars and celebrity politics behind forevermore. Until these changes are made the decline begun back in 1913 with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act and the Federal Income Tax, will continue.
Second, the American dream has captured the imagination of people around the world. Chinese, Indians ane Brazilians--as well as the rest of the world--all want what we've got. Their economies are cranking up to deliver the goods. However, those countries, not to mention the Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese and Chileans have a built in advantage in the sense their economies don't have to finance the American military industrial complex, supporting troops garrisoned in more than 100 countries around the world and spending more on the military than all the other countries in the world combined. Nor do those countries sustain a social welfare safety net for their workers. These aspiring Chinese, Indians and Brazilians--and all the rest--are driving demand for commodities, especially oil, creating shortages and posing a serious threat to the relative value of the dollar. In short, goods and services are going to continue to cost more in dollars and dollars are going to continue to be worth less and less against other currencies until and unless we get our act together.
The Rainmaker does not believe that this is a problem unique to the dollar. Why? Read on!
Well to really grasp this one must understand that while the dollar's slide is an American phenomena it is also the symptom of a more serious global problem. Why? Well the dollar, like most national currencies is backed not by real wealth but by debt created by national banks secured only by the full faith and credit of the nation. The Federal Reserve, a privately owned institution, loans currency into existence and the United States (actually the tax payers) guarantees those loans will be repaid. Taxes levied on the income of individuals and corproations pay the debt service. The dollar isn't backed by precious metals. The dollar is backed by our capacity to pay taxes.
One can make the argument that the dollar is not nearly as weak as it currently seems (June 2007) and the current valuation, especially against the Euro is really a function of the incredibly bad PR associated with the current Administration. In fact the fundamentals of the Euro are in many ways worse than the fundamental foundations underpining the dollar. European countries have much more significant entitlement problems, less productive work forces, lower savings rates and higher taxes than Americans. This should eventually enable the dollar to rebound against European currencies and make London hotel rooms a little more affordable.
However these arguments don't hold against the Asian competition.
So, what is the real story? The bottom line is that most all national currencies are ultimately secured by the ability of the national government to collect taxes sufficient to carry the debt due the national bank issuing the currency. How can one judge the severity of our currenty problem? The answer is to look at commodity pricing and currency valuation compared to gold.
Please return to the chart at the top of this piece and look at it again with this analysis in mind.
Is this a problem unique to the United States? Or does it involve other national currencies as well? We'll explore that topic in Part Three of The Yellow Brick Road.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part One
After the tornado deposited her in the wonderland of "OZ," Dorothy looked at her faithful dog and said, "Toto, we arent' in Kansas anymore!" When gold recently broke through the $900 per ounce barrier, flirted with $1,000 per ounce and then retreated back to the high $800 per ounce range, its price performance seemed to correlate positively with the dollar hitting new lows against the Euro. It's a strange new world made even more confusing by the advent of $4 a gallon gas at the pump. Americans everywhere seem to feel the same confusion as Dorothy as she realized she was in a strange new land.
This may be a strange ecnomic landscape and nothing we counted on seems safe anymore, but what does it really mean to us as we live our daily lives?
During the last half of the twentieth century, we Americans grew up believing in the inevitability of our day to day reality. What was before would always be. The dollar was the "go to" currency of choice in a world of change and uncertainty. America only fought just wars. American "know how" would always save the day.
However, during the first decade of the twenty first century Americans look around and nothing seems quite so safe any more. The September 2001 attacks were a shock. The failure to find "Weapons of Mass Destruction" in Iraq after the intelligence community assured the President the presence of WMDs was was a "Slam Dunk" and their discovery inevitable, was disheartening. The subsequent failure to "win the peace" in Iraq after such an easy and triumphant invasion was hard to believe.
The seeming financial fall out of the cost of the wars, such as the credit meltdown hammering the banks and mortgage companies, the stock market stagflation, sticker shock at the gas pump and the economic malaise all seem surreal. The fact that the dollar seems to be weaker against other currencies, notably the Euro, and that a decent London hotel now costs $800 per night is simply unbelievable.
What does it all mean? What will happen next? How do we protect our families and ourselves and our business investments in the clinches, which are apparently the fall out of September 11th? This is now what most of us believe to be the relevant question.
But perhaps there is another explanation that doesnt't rely just on the events of September 2001 and has to do with funny stuff like currency management, going deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nations structure thier economies.
Next, the Rainmaker will explore those alternative explanations or our current unfortunate reality.
This may be a strange ecnomic landscape and nothing we counted on seems safe anymore, but what does it really mean to us as we live our daily lives?
During the last half of the twentieth century, we Americans grew up believing in the inevitability of our day to day reality. What was before would always be. The dollar was the "go to" currency of choice in a world of change and uncertainty. America only fought just wars. American "know how" would always save the day.
However, during the first decade of the twenty first century Americans look around and nothing seems quite so safe any more. The September 2001 attacks were a shock. The failure to find "Weapons of Mass Destruction" in Iraq after the intelligence community assured the President the presence of WMDs was was a "Slam Dunk" and their discovery inevitable, was disheartening. The subsequent failure to "win the peace" in Iraq after such an easy and triumphant invasion was hard to believe.
The seeming financial fall out of the cost of the wars, such as the credit meltdown hammering the banks and mortgage companies, the stock market stagflation, sticker shock at the gas pump and the economic malaise all seem surreal. The fact that the dollar seems to be weaker against other currencies, notably the Euro, and that a decent London hotel now costs $800 per night is simply unbelievable.
What does it all mean? What will happen next? How do we protect our families and ourselves and our business investments in the clinches, which are apparently the fall out of September 11th? This is now what most of us believe to be the relevant question.
But perhaps there is another explanation that doesnt't rely just on the events of September 2001 and has to do with funny stuff like currency management, going deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nations structure thier economies.
Next, the Rainmaker will explore those alternative explanations or our current unfortunate reality.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Live Long and Prosper
Nothing can compare with good health to assure happiness. Too often we are too dense to appreciate that fact, but eventually it is a lesson we all learn.
A few days ago we offered a serious suggestion, "Wellness Tokens," as a means of creating incentives to motivate more of us to "do the right thing," and assure our good health. Many of you have suggested we amend the label to "Wellness Dollars" in an effort to make the program more accessible to more people more quickly. OK, so be it. The Rainmaker will now refer to these tokens as "Wellness Dollars." So let it be written, so let it be done!
In the meantime in our ever diligent search for useful/actionable (sort of sounds like jargon but it's not meant that way...promise) information we stumbled across some anonymous research on the web that explains the sorry state of American health in the first decade of the 21st Century.
Here it is. The Rainmaker hopes you find it as instructive and useful as we did:
"After an exhaustive review of the research literature, here's the final word on nutrition and health:
A few days ago we offered a serious suggestion, "Wellness Tokens," as a means of creating incentives to motivate more of us to "do the right thing," and assure our good health. Many of you have suggested we amend the label to "Wellness Dollars" in an effort to make the program more accessible to more people more quickly. OK, so be it. The Rainmaker will now refer to these tokens as "Wellness Dollars." So let it be written, so let it be done!
In the meantime in our ever diligent search for useful/actionable (sort of sounds like jargon but it's not meant that way...promise) information we stumbled across some anonymous research on the web that explains the sorry state of American health in the first decade of the 21st Century.
Here it is. The Rainmaker hopes you find it as instructive and useful as we did:
"After an exhaustive review of the research literature, here's the final word on nutrition and health:
- Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than Americans.
- Mexicans eat a lot of fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than Americans.
- Chinese drink very little red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than Americans.
- Italians drink excessive amounts of red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than Americans.
- Germans drink beer and eat lots of sausages and fats and suffer fewer heart attacks than Americans.
CONCLUSION: Eat and drink whatever the hell you like. Speaking English is apparently what kills you, but the U.S. Government is trying to correct the problem."
And there you have it. The secret to health and long life is to stop speaking English. The Rainmaker thought you would want to know.
For those of you who find this a tad politically incorrect, The Rainmaker offers the following piece of wisdom: "Lighten up."
For the rest of you:
"Viva mucho tiempo y prospere!"
"Longs de phase et prosperent!"
"活长和繁荣."
"生きている長い繁栄し."
"Длинние в реальном маштабе времени и процветают."
"Longos vivos e progridem."
"살아있는 긴 번영한다."
For all the native speaking purists who find fault with those translations, all The Rainmaker can ask is that you cut a little slack, the objective here is merely to extend the life span a tad by learning to be a little less reliant on English.
For all the "English First" types who find this whole exercise offensive; all The Rainmaker can do is ask that you leave us a little something in your will.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Where the Jobs Are
Have you ever read Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged?"
It's an amazing book about the productive members of society becoming discouraged and fed up as their labor is appropriated to carry the rest of society.
There are interesting aspects of our society today that indicate we are getting closer to the reality Rand found so disturbing that she wrote a book about what might happen if the producers who earn their way decided they have had enough.
Eventually the producers withdraw from society and move to Galt's Gulch, founded by the infamous John Galt, one of Rand's heroes in "Atlas Shrugged." Remember the graffiti from a few decades ago asking "Who is John Galt?" Others wrote "Where is John Galt?"
As Wikipedia describes Rand's social commentary:
"Rand's heroes must continually fight against the 'Parasites', 'looters', and 'moochers' of the society around them."
"The looters are those who confiscate others' earnings "at the point of a gun" (figuratively speaking)--often because they are government officials, and thus their demands are backed by the threat of force."
Yesterday the Washington Post carried a story describing the increasing levels of unemployment in virtually every productive sector of the economy as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's not a pretty picture on the whole.
For example in July of 2007 there were 7.63 million Americans who earned a living through construction, but in July of this year only 7.17 million jobs were available in that sector. The total employment declined 6% in one twelve months.
In the manufacturing sector the total employment declined 2% from 13.8 million jobs in July 2007 to 13.5 million one year later.
15.3 million Americans worked in the retail sector this July, down 2% from the 15.48 million who had jobs a year earlier.
Only 200,000 Americans lost their jobs between July 07 and 08 in the transportation industry; a mere 4/10 of 1% decline.
Both the financial sector (banking/real estate) and professional services sector (lawyers, managers and administrators) had an even smaller relative decline of 2/10 of 1%; losing 120,000 financial services jobs and 400,000 professional jobs and ending up at a total employment of 8.21 million and 17.91 million respectively. Perhaps Bear Stearns really was an anomaly.
There was however some good news, at least if you aren't an Ayn Rand aficionado. In the 12 months ending July 2008 four of ten sectors experienced job growth according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
It's an amazing book about the productive members of society becoming discouraged and fed up as their labor is appropriated to carry the rest of society.
There are interesting aspects of our society today that indicate we are getting closer to the reality Rand found so disturbing that she wrote a book about what might happen if the producers who earn their way decided they have had enough.
Eventually the producers withdraw from society and move to Galt's Gulch, founded by the infamous John Galt, one of Rand's heroes in "Atlas Shrugged." Remember the graffiti from a few decades ago asking "Who is John Galt?" Others wrote "Where is John Galt?"
As Wikipedia describes Rand's social commentary:
"Rand's heroes must continually fight against the 'Parasites', 'looters', and 'moochers' of the society around them."
"The looters are those who confiscate others' earnings "at the point of a gun" (figuratively speaking)--often because they are government officials, and thus their demands are backed by the threat of force."
Yesterday the Washington Post carried a story describing the increasing levels of unemployment in virtually every productive sector of the economy as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's not a pretty picture on the whole.
For example in July of 2007 there were 7.63 million Americans who earned a living through construction, but in July of this year only 7.17 million jobs were available in that sector. The total employment declined 6% in one twelve months.
In the manufacturing sector the total employment declined 2% from 13.8 million jobs in July 2007 to 13.5 million one year later.
15.3 million Americans worked in the retail sector this July, down 2% from the 15.48 million who had jobs a year earlier.
Only 200,000 Americans lost their jobs between July 07 and 08 in the transportation industry; a mere 4/10 of 1% decline.
Both the financial sector (banking/real estate) and professional services sector (lawyers, managers and administrators) had an even smaller relative decline of 2/10 of 1%; losing 120,000 financial services jobs and 400,000 professional jobs and ending up at a total employment of 8.21 million and 17.91 million respectively. Perhaps Bear Stearns really was an anomaly.
There was however some good news, at least if you aren't an Ayn Rand aficionado. In the 12 months ending July 2008 four of ten sectors experienced job growth according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
- The biggest percentage gain--4%--was in Education, gaining 120,000 jobs and ending at 3.08 million workers.
- Next in job growth performance during the year was the health care sector with a 3% gain, ending July with 370,000 new workers for a total workforce of 13.33 million Americans.
- The government sector (federal and local) hired an additional 350,000 Americans, realizing 2% job growth.
- The leisure and entertainment sector, which includes hotels, also posted a 2% gain. As of this July 13.68 million Americans work in this sector, 210,000 more than last July.
So why would Ayn have a problem with 1,050,000 new jobs? It's simple really, except for the 210,000 new hires in leisure and entertainment, the other 840,000 lucky new hires in the remaining three growth sectors don't really produce anything.
Ayn would call them parasites, looters and moochers. All these areas (even the medical sector due to Medicare and Medicade) are highly dependent on tax transfer payments from the working stiffs, entrepreneurs, investors etc. who cause real growth.
Ayn presumably wouldn't have a problem if the taxes paid by the construction workers, manufacturers, retailers, transportation workers, financial workers and professionals paid their taxes voluntarily, but of course that isn't the way the world works. She would also have problems with the fact that the benefits, especially retirement benefits accorded government workers (think: Thrift Savings vs. Social Security, retire after 20 years vs. retire after 45+ years if ever, etc.) are so much better than what the rest of society can expect. But, that's another story.
If you want to know where the jobs are, there is the answer. The bottom line is you are less likely to get laid off if the paycheck is funded by taxes collected, as Ayn would say, at the point of a gun.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Choices
It has been said often: "All politics is local."
But that's wrong. In fact, I believe that really, "All politics is personal."
Consider that most of us support a politician or a policy or a program because we think the candidate or the policy or the program is best for us and our family.
For example most folks know Social Security and Medicare are bankrupt and believe those programs need to be fixed, just so long as it doesn't interfere with our monthly check. When the money is gone "they" will think of something.
We choose to vote for people running for office based on their perceived ability to "bring home the bacon." Although we tend to be highly critical of politicians we appreciate the new road, the new post office, the prescription drug benefit and the defense contract for our town.
We are all concerned about global warming but we bought the SUV and drove to work alone in spite of Al Gore's scare mongering until the price of gas made us believe it's too expensive to drive that SUV. Now we are eager to authorize more drilling not because we think we can drill our way out of the energy crises in the long run but rather because we want those gas prices to come down in the short run.
We all make choices we believe to be in our enlightened self interest and we tend to ignore the consequences of those choices.
The politicians, the manufacturers, the media, the retailers and the service industry all respect our choices and do their best to cater to those choices. So, we get the government, business, media and service we ask for each time we make a choice. Although we hate to admit it we get exactly what we deserve.
But the consequences of our collective choices are piling up and at some point rather sooner than we all expect or hope, the bill will come due.
But that's wrong. In fact, I believe that really, "All politics is personal."
Consider that most of us support a politician or a policy or a program because we think the candidate or the policy or the program is best for us and our family.
For example most folks know Social Security and Medicare are bankrupt and believe those programs need to be fixed, just so long as it doesn't interfere with our monthly check. When the money is gone "they" will think of something.
We choose to vote for people running for office based on their perceived ability to "bring home the bacon." Although we tend to be highly critical of politicians we appreciate the new road, the new post office, the prescription drug benefit and the defense contract for our town.
We are all concerned about global warming but we bought the SUV and drove to work alone in spite of Al Gore's scare mongering until the price of gas made us believe it's too expensive to drive that SUV. Now we are eager to authorize more drilling not because we think we can drill our way out of the energy crises in the long run but rather because we want those gas prices to come down in the short run.
We all make choices we believe to be in our enlightened self interest and we tend to ignore the consequences of those choices.
The politicians, the manufacturers, the media, the retailers and the service industry all respect our choices and do their best to cater to those choices. So, we get the government, business, media and service we ask for each time we make a choice. Although we hate to admit it we get exactly what we deserve.
But the consequences of our collective choices are piling up and at some point rather sooner than we all expect or hope, the bill will come due.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
A Dollar
What is a U.S. dollar worth?
Everyone probably immediately thinks, "not as much as it used to be worth!" And, of course that's correct.
But what was it worth back when the Republic was young and vibrant? According to Wikipedia a dollar was originally (between 1792 and 1873) redeemable from the United States Treasury for 371.25 grains of silver.
So, what exactly is a grain? Again according to Wikipedia a grain is a measure based on the mass of a "single seed of a typical cereal," such as wheat of barley. In modern times a grain is fixed as an amount equal to about 64.8 milligrams.
In fact when I was a child I had paper dollar bills that bore the legend "silver certificate," meaning I could cash them in at any bank for an ounce of silver. So as recently as the 60s an ounce of silver equated to a dollar. As of this writing I can buy an ounce of silver for $17.44.
Thus, in the past forty years, by my estimate the purchasing power of a dollar measured in the quantity of silver it will buy is about seventeen and one half times less than it was.
So, your initial reaction was accurate and a dollar really isn't worth what it used to be worth.
Everyone probably immediately thinks, "not as much as it used to be worth!" And, of course that's correct.
But what was it worth back when the Republic was young and vibrant? According to Wikipedia a dollar was originally (between 1792 and 1873) redeemable from the United States Treasury for 371.25 grains of silver.
So, what exactly is a grain? Again according to Wikipedia a grain is a measure based on the mass of a "single seed of a typical cereal," such as wheat of barley. In modern times a grain is fixed as an amount equal to about 64.8 milligrams.
In fact when I was a child I had paper dollar bills that bore the legend "silver certificate," meaning I could cash them in at any bank for an ounce of silver. So as recently as the 60s an ounce of silver equated to a dollar. As of this writing I can buy an ounce of silver for $17.44.
Thus, in the past forty years, by my estimate the purchasing power of a dollar measured in the quantity of silver it will buy is about seventeen and one half times less than it was.
So, your initial reaction was accurate and a dollar really isn't worth what it used to be worth.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Who am I and why am I here?
When Ross Perot's running mate Admiral James Stockdale asked that question in his opening statement during the 1992 Vice Presidential Debate he was portrayed as a dunce. It was the effective end of his candidacy, leading to skits on Saturday Night Live and political oblivion.
But when you back off and really think about it, those questions are really the core issues. And the answers matter--not just for political candidates but for each of us.
So, to turn the question around I ask the following question.
Just who exactly are you?
And, why are you here?
I'd be very interested to know your answers to those questions. I'm even more interested to know if you know the answers.
But when you back off and really think about it, those questions are really the core issues. And the answers matter--not just for political candidates but for each of us.
So, to turn the question around I ask the following question.
Just who exactly are you?
And, why are you here?
I'd be very interested to know your answers to those questions. I'm even more interested to know if you know the answers.
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Good Idea Test and Wellness Tokens
How do you know if an idea is really good?
We all hear lots of ideas. Some are obviously bad like those inspiring the Darwin Awards each year. Those ideas are usually fatal to the poor soul who acted on them. If you aren't familiar with these awards, visit http://www.darwinawards.com/ where a record of 746 "Enterprising Demises" is kept. Obviously any idea that kills you probably isn't a good one.
However, the relavant merits of most idea aren't that obvious.
How can we quickly evaluate whether or not an idea we hear is a good one? I have a simple rule. In my experience, an idea is likely to be a good one if my initial reaction to the new idea is, "Gee, I wish I'd thought of that!" This is my version of the "Blink Test," named after the Malcolm Gladwell book "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking."
Over the years this test has consistently proven an accurate indicator of the relative merit of the idea. I have learned if the new idea has to be sold to me and I buy it, I'm usually sorry in the long run.
When I first heard about Wellness Tokens that reward people for behaviors that keep them healthy, my initial "Blink Test" response was, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Before I tell you about Wellness Tokens, let's explore the problems of our current system of medical care.
Consider how our current system works, or doesn't depending on your pont of view. We are basically ignored until we get sick or hurt. Then herioc measures are undertaken, massive quantities of expensive drugs are prescribed and everything possible is done to put Humpty Dumpty together again. But the odds are that once we are sick enough to need the Doctors, Hospitals and drugs we will never be quite the same again regardless of the quality of care we receive. Although lip service is paid to the idea of prevention, the efforts are usually half hearted and inneffective. Too often prevention is focused on using fear to scare the hell out of us, which causes most of us to simply retreat into denial rather than change our behaviors.
The medical establishment (Think: AMA, hospitals, health insurance companies and pharmaceuticals companies.) have created a cozy little system that tends to discourage or even exclude alternatives to their put Humpty Dumpty back together model. And of course all the financial incentives are on the side of treatment/cure rather than prevention/wellness. That is all well and good for the medical establishment; however, should you or I fall into their cozy little system we had best have great insurance or a good bankruptcy lawyer.
In other words our system isn't a system of health care at all, it's a system of medical care. Until you need to cure a disease, heal a trauma or deal with the symptoms of age--so long as you are healthy--you really aren't a suitable candidate for medical care. And, relatively little or no attention is paid to helping us stay healthy and thus avoid the need for medical care.
So, with that background, what exactly is a Wellness Token and why am I promoting it?
This good idea was initially published in 2006 by a Belgian economist named Bernard Lietaer in an article titled "Wellness Tokens: A Currency That Promotes Preventive Care."
In his original paper Lietaer begins by describing the problem and pointing out the difference between medical care and health or wellness care.
Lietaer describes the importance of financial incentive in determining the focus of care. For example until the late 19th Century Chinese Doctors were compensated by patients so long as the patient maintained good health and if the patient became ill the Doctor paid the patient. Imagine that for a moment. The financial incentive in pre 20th Century China was wellness and prevention.
The Wellness Token, according to Lietaer, is designed to emphasize the focus on three areas: wellness, prevention and holistic health care rather than on after the fact medical care. Wellness Tokens would focus in a manner familiar to anyone who has ever participated in a frequent flyer program. Tokens would be earned in two ways:
We all hear lots of ideas. Some are obviously bad like those inspiring the Darwin Awards each year. Those ideas are usually fatal to the poor soul who acted on them. If you aren't familiar with these awards, visit http://www.darwinawards.com/ where a record of 746 "Enterprising Demises" is kept. Obviously any idea that kills you probably isn't a good one.
However, the relavant merits of most idea aren't that obvious.
How can we quickly evaluate whether or not an idea we hear is a good one? I have a simple rule. In my experience, an idea is likely to be a good one if my initial reaction to the new idea is, "Gee, I wish I'd thought of that!" This is my version of the "Blink Test," named after the Malcolm Gladwell book "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking."
Over the years this test has consistently proven an accurate indicator of the relative merit of the idea. I have learned if the new idea has to be sold to me and I buy it, I'm usually sorry in the long run.
When I first heard about Wellness Tokens that reward people for behaviors that keep them healthy, my initial "Blink Test" response was, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Before I tell you about Wellness Tokens, let's explore the problems of our current system of medical care.
Consider how our current system works, or doesn't depending on your pont of view. We are basically ignored until we get sick or hurt. Then herioc measures are undertaken, massive quantities of expensive drugs are prescribed and everything possible is done to put Humpty Dumpty together again. But the odds are that once we are sick enough to need the Doctors, Hospitals and drugs we will never be quite the same again regardless of the quality of care we receive. Although lip service is paid to the idea of prevention, the efforts are usually half hearted and inneffective. Too often prevention is focused on using fear to scare the hell out of us, which causes most of us to simply retreat into denial rather than change our behaviors.
The medical establishment (Think: AMA, hospitals, health insurance companies and pharmaceuticals companies.) have created a cozy little system that tends to discourage or even exclude alternatives to their put Humpty Dumpty back together model. And of course all the financial incentives are on the side of treatment/cure rather than prevention/wellness. That is all well and good for the medical establishment; however, should you or I fall into their cozy little system we had best have great insurance or a good bankruptcy lawyer.
In other words our system isn't a system of health care at all, it's a system of medical care. Until you need to cure a disease, heal a trauma or deal with the symptoms of age--so long as you are healthy--you really aren't a suitable candidate for medical care. And, relatively little or no attention is paid to helping us stay healthy and thus avoid the need for medical care.
So, with that background, what exactly is a Wellness Token and why am I promoting it?
This good idea was initially published in 2006 by a Belgian economist named Bernard Lietaer in an article titled "Wellness Tokens: A Currency That Promotes Preventive Care."
In his original paper Lietaer begins by describing the problem and pointing out the difference between medical care and health or wellness care.
Lietaer describes the importance of financial incentive in determining the focus of care. For example until the late 19th Century Chinese Doctors were compensated by patients so long as the patient maintained good health and if the patient became ill the Doctor paid the patient. Imagine that for a moment. The financial incentive in pre 20th Century China was wellness and prevention.
The Wellness Token, according to Lietaer, is designed to emphasize the focus on three areas: wellness, prevention and holistic health care rather than on after the fact medical care. Wellness Tokens would focus in a manner familiar to anyone who has ever participated in a frequent flyer program. Tokens would be earned in two ways:
- Providing non-medical help to the elderly, handicapped and folks who need chronic care; and,
- Participating in specifically qualified preventitive health programs (For example: obesity reduction programs, educational programs, fitness programs, etc.).
Lietaer writes that Wellness Tokens could be redeemed in part for other goods and services such as preventive therapies, discounts for purchases of healthy foods, fitness programs and such. For example, according to Lietaer, the Elderplan Insurance Company of Brooklyn, NY accepts alternative currency for up to 25% of insurance premiums for elderly customers.
After reading all of that is there any doubt that the Wellness Token conceived by Bernard Lietaer passes my "Blink Test?" Although I didn't think of it, I can at least write about it and introce you to the concept!
Friday, July 25, 2008
The Wisdom of the Prophet
The scribe Gerard Baker, US Editor and Assistant Editor of The Times of London, wrote the report you can find at the link below and verily I say unto you this is the most entertaining political satire that I have read this millennium. The scribe's missive is titled:
"He ventured forth to bring light to the world!
In which missive the scribe describes how, "The anointed one' pilgrimage to the Holy Land is a miracle in action-and a blessing to all his faithful followers!"
I invite you to click on the following link and enjoy the read:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4392846.ece
You might actually find political enlightenment as you ponder the scribe's words.
"He ventured forth to bring light to the world!
In which missive the scribe describes how, "The anointed one' pilgrimage to the Holy Land is a miracle in action-and a blessing to all his faithful followers!"
I invite you to click on the following link and enjoy the read:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4392846.ece
You might actually find political enlightenment as you ponder the scribe's words.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Millions and Billions and Trillions
What’s the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion?
In the last posting on this blog lots of big numbers got tossed around. How can someone grasp a number like $77 trillion or even one trillion dollars for that matter?
In a straight forward mathematical context, one thousand multiplied by one thousand equals one million. And a million multiplied by one thousand equals one billion. While a billion times one thousand equals one trillion.
It might be easier to grasp the order of magnitude of these differences if you think of it this way. If a million dollars equates to a single inch, then 1,000 inches or 83.33 feet equates to a billion dollars. And, 1,000 billions equals a trillion dollars, which equates to 15.78 miles. On your next long walk or short car ride, this will help you put the United States’ debt crises into better perspective.
The more we understand the more we appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
In the last posting on this blog lots of big numbers got tossed around. How can someone grasp a number like $77 trillion or even one trillion dollars for that matter?
In a straight forward mathematical context, one thousand multiplied by one thousand equals one million. And a million multiplied by one thousand equals one billion. While a billion times one thousand equals one trillion.
It might be easier to grasp the order of magnitude of these differences if you think of it this way. If a million dollars equates to a single inch, then 1,000 inches or 83.33 feet equates to a billion dollars. And, 1,000 billions equals a trillion dollars, which equates to 15.78 miles. On your next long walk or short car ride, this will help you put the United States’ debt crises into better perspective.
The more we understand the more we appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
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