Sunday, June 28, 2009
Show Me The Money
Unlike most books about money it doesn't serve as an alternative to a sleeping potion. Unlike most books about money that identify the problems with our monetary system, "The End of Money..." not only defines the problems but also identifies the solution to the current crisis.
The book is readable, entertaining, enlightening and understandable to anyone, not just monetary students.
Tom Greco strips away the mysteries that blind most of us to the functioning of debt money and fractional reserve banking. He explains how money is created by monetizing debt and the resultant twin imperatives for ever more debt and unsustainable growth to feed the insatiable demands of compound interest.
But then the book gets really interesting when Greco shows that there are various alternatives to the current debt based monetary system that address its defects and offer incredible promise of enabling a healthy, prosperous and sustainable future for all. And, these alternative systems aren't something that Greco dreamed up or that have never been tested. Rather he describes and demonstrates several examples from around the world that have survived, in some cases for decades. Greco also provides a candid description of the problems alternative monetary systems must confront, including many that are self inflicted by the organizers and users of the systems.
Thomas Greco is no dreamer. He is a realist and the work he has completed offers a clear and honest evaluation of the current situation, the dangers that ultimately could threaten civilization and the hope for a reasonable future. In short Greco is not just willing to say "The Emperor has no clothes." He also showed me the money, warts and all.
If you really want to understand money, the problems with money and solutions to enable civilization to prosper, read "The End of Money and the Future of Civilization."
You need to know this information, understand it and act upon it.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Thinking Outside the Box
Current thinking seems to be to cure the problems by forcing liquidity into the financial sectors of the economy. So far results aren't promising.
Current thinking doesn't appear to differ significantly from the thinking that created the problem bubbles in the first place. This of course brings to mind two famous observations by Albert Einstein. The first is on problem solving, "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." And, the second is perhaps even more on target for the strategies being employed by our fearless economic leaders. It is a definition of insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
These observations by a man many consider to be one of the most brilliant people to ever live suggest that the solution has yet to be found and that the current approach is likely to fail. More importantly, Einstein's approach to problem solving and definition of insanity indicate that any solution with a prayer of success must come from outside the box and defy conventional wisdom.
If outside the box, unconventional solutions were to be attempted what might those solutions look like? The following are The Rainmaker's suggestions for how America might deal with various issues threatening this country and the world in areas beginning today with a discussion of the current economic/monetary crisis. In days to come issues such as health care (Medicare), elder care (Social Security), energy, ecology, immigration, crime and terrorism will become the focus.
The first outside the box solution is to return to the founder's intentions as defined in Article I Section 8 of the United States Constitution regarding creating a national currency.
Our money is typically something about which we aren't conscious. Like air or water, it isn't considered unless we don't have any. Then, it becomes a matter of life and death. Few of us can even define money. What is it really?
Money is best understood by its two primary functions.
First, it is a medium of exchange. This means that it facilitates transactions without our having to resort to barter. Second, traditionally, it is a store of value. This means that you can hold money and be confident that tomorrow or next year, it will by substantially the same goods and services as it will by today.
America's money still services the first function admirably, functioning as the world's reserve currency. However, as a store of value our money is an abject failure. Between 1913 when the Federal Reserve Bank was created and 2004 the purchasing power of a dollar dropped about 96%. The net effect of that decline in our money's capacity to act as a store of value is that a 2004 dollar would buy about 20% less than a nickel would buy in 1913.
Why is American money failing in its role as a store of value?
Although there are several reasons that explain the failure of U.S. currency to be a store of value, this discussion will initially focus on the role of interest and usury. Subsequently, the role of fractional reserve banking will be considered.
Interest is typically a charge levied on borrowers to compensate lenders for the risk of non repayment of loans. Usury is usually defined as loaning money at exorbitant or illegal rates of interest.
Prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913, money was issued by government and various banks. Subsequently money has evolved to the point that it is issued by the Federal Reserve Bank as a loan to the U.S. Government. When you look at a dollar bill you will note that it says "Federal Reserve Note." A note is a promise to pay or a loan document. Thus virtually every dollar in circulation today is proceeds of a loan from the Federal Reserve Bank to the U.S. government or by banks that are members of the Federal Reserve system as loans to customers through fractional reserve banking. And, the Federal Reserve collects an interest charge on that currency circulating as a medium of exchange.
Yet, there is no reason to borrow the medium of exchange. There is no risk of loss. Nevertheless this interest charge distorts the American monetary system because although the money is issued by the Federal Reserve to facilitate transactions, the Federal Reserve doesn't issue the money to pay the interest charge. This adds what amounts to a hidden tax on every dollar in your pocket, your bank accounts, your retirement accounts. That isn't necessary to cover risk of loss. This is in effect usury on a massive scale.
As Americans struggle to pay this usurious hidden tax every decision, every transaction is distorted. It usually isn't much of a distortion but even a 1/10th of 1% change of course results in a major deviation slowly over time. Charging interest on the medium of exchange is a huge and unfair burden on all Americans.
The second value in the erosion of the purchasing power of America's money is the effect of fractional reserve banking. Every American dollar is borrowed into existence. First the Federal Reserve loans money to the U.S. government and it loans money to its member banks. These funds are spent in the case of the government. Government employees and contractors deposit those funds in their bank accounts. The balances in those accounts are then spent over time.
Those bank balances become part of the bank reserve and, since it is clear that on any given day depositors won't draw down their account balance, the bank can put that money to work by loaning against it to other customers. The cycle repeats. Banks are required to maintain a reserve, ranging from 3% to 10% of the gross deposits. So, if a bank receives a $100 deposit it can loan another customer $90 or more. When that loan is deposited into the customer's account the bank can loan an additional $81 and so on. Thus, if you do the math, a bank can extend about $1,000 in loans on a $100 deposit assuming a 10% reserve ration.
All this creates economic activity driven by fractional reserve. However, the goods available for purchase, being limited by physical reality, don't keep pace with this exponential growth of the money supply. Hence the purchasing power of a dollar falls.
The system is ultimately unsustainable.
So, here is an outside the box suggestion to deal with the current monetary crisis. It is time to go back to the future so to speak and implement the Andrew Jackson solution to the impossibility of a National Bank collecting an interest change on the medium of exchange while expanding the money supply by issuing exponentially expanding FIAT currency in to a fractional reserve banking system.
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 should be repealed. The money used as a medium of exchange should be issued by the United States Treasury interest free. In a perfect world this money would be backed by precious metals such as gold and silver. Imagine the United States of America issuing honest, real money.
If the United States were to go all the way, the government would allow other forms of currency to compete with the dollar, giving people the opportunity to shop for the strongest, most stable and most honest currency.
Actually, the financial performance of the United States economy after Jackson revoked the charter of the Bank of the United States and before the creation of the Federal Reserve was significantly superior to the economic and fiscal performance in the past 96 years since the creation of the Federal Reserve when measured in terms of relative growth and stable purchasing power of American currency.
Next up is the coming health care crisis.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt
Soddy points out the the real world is subject to the laws of physics while the economic world is subject only to the laws of mathematics. Thus there is a limit to what humanity can physically produce and consume, which Soddy defines as wealth. But Soddy sees no theoretical limit to the amount of debt that humanity can incur. Virtual wealth is what we call money, a representation of wealth that can be traded as a medium of exchange or held as a store of value.
Why, asked Soddy should a medium of exchange and store of value representing real wealth be treated as a debt incurring an interest charge?
Yet debt based monetary systems, such as the Dollar, Euro, Yen and almost all other national currencies, compound debt through interest charges without regard to real wealth, creating obligations that can never be repaid. Every dollar in our pocket, checking account, savings account and retirement account incurs an interest charge collected by the Federal Reserve, a privately owned bank. Yet, we didn't borrow those dollars, we earned them. Why are we paying interest on those dollars?
When it is no longer possible to carry the debt (pay the interest and repay the principal) the debtor is in default and his or her property is seized by the debt holder (financial institutions, banks and ultimately the owners of the Federal Reserve). Thus there is a tendency in our ecnomy to concentrate wealth in fewer hands over time.
Soddy understood the inherent impossibility of a debt based monetary system to be sustainable. Such a system borrows money into existence without regard to real wealth, incurs an interest charge to use currency as a medium of exchange and multiplies debt without regard to the physical world's ability to carry or service the debt (pay the interest and repay the original principal)accumulated by a fractional reserve banking system.
"Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt" is still in print and worth reading for anyone wondering what is really going on in today's economy.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Sir Francis Bacon Part Two
As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude...The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book The Rainmaker ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about Bacon's blocks in full: (The Rainmaker's comments are inserted into Diana's text in regular type.)
Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
The Rainmaker agrees that Sir Robert nailed the problem pretty concisely yet compreshesively and suspects that Machiavelli would consider #1 above to be an Oxymoron.
2) long-standing continuance of custom
The Rainmaker suspects that Hobbs would disagree the #2 is always an obstacle. The Rainmaker can almost anticipate George Wills column to refute this proposition.
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The Rainmaker strongly suspects that Sir Roger Bacon would be glad he didn't live in the era of Congressional hearings, spin doctors and cable news networks as those pertain to items #3 and #4.
The Rainmaker is no philosopher but sees nothing to disagree with in the four statements. All four are indeed stumbling-blocks in the way of grasping the truth.
The foregoing was obviously, at least to The Rainmaker Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
Yes, and The Rainmaker believes they are being used with malice aforethought. Search for this website featuring the "Money as Debt" movie and invest 45 minutes, then let The Rainmaker know if you agree or disagree with this answer.
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
Only those with their mouths shut who are not writing anything. Seriously The Rainmaker believes one can trust that government which is closest to home most and hold that government more accountable. The closer one gets to the center (a state capital or Washington) the less trustworthy and the less accountable the politician or bureaucrat.
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
The media is a medium of obfuscation, interest group propaganda, sensationalism and entertainment. The media will keep us from obtaining the truth only if we allow it to do that. In the Rainmaker's opinion we are each on our own hook when it comes to becoming informed and wise.
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
In every way they can conceive of in order to obtain their respective real objectives, which are almost universally applicable to any candidate for any office:
*To be elected;
*To grow (pick at least two) powerful, wealthy and famous at public expense;
*To maximize their personal perogative's and perks;
*To use their power to peddle influence in order to lavishly fund their reelection campaigns;
*To be reelected often at any cost, which usually means don't rock the boat and go along to get along;
*To conceal "their own ignorance," confusion, uncertainty and insecurities while exhibiting apparent "wisdom" that in reality is merely conventional wisdom;
*To maximise their own perceived power and privilege;
*To leave a "legacy" of honor purchased at the taxpayer's cost and the soldier's life, both spent as necessary to furthur the politicians self interest; and,
*To do the right thing for the country, its citizens and the world if it doesn't conflict with any of the preceeding objectives.
The Rainmaker believes that if asked, any politician will answer that his or her objective is the last one listed and further, that being masters of "Cognitive Dissonance" politicians and bureaucrats have usually convinced themselves that is in fact the case. However, it is the Rainmaker's opinion that the previous eight objectives are pretty much listed in the real world order of importance.
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
The Rainmaker believes the United State's monetary system is inherently dishonest. As the monetary system is the medium in which a society functions, when it is poluted it will eventually do to society what dirty water eventually does to a fish--kill it. There has never been a paper money, debt money system that has managed to survive 100 years. Ours is about 94 years old.
Therefore since the medium in which society functions is dishonest--no matter how well meaning and personally honest most people in a society might be and usually are in their day to day lives--the society itself is tainted. Periodic economic dislocations are probably inevitable in any society, but the dislocations experienced by a society function with dishonest money are more frequent, more severe and ultimately fatal. That is The Rainmaker's observation regarding Diana's final point.
The Rainmaker offers the following support of this observation. That support is in the form of three books.
The first is "Money and Debt" by Thomas Greco. It can be found at a website called "Reinventing Money" in the "library" on that site and can be downloaded for free (it's only a 65 pages). It comes in three parts (meaning separate pdf files).
The second is "Debt Virus" by Dr. Jacques Jaidaran M.D. and it can be found at most online booksellers. "Debt Virus" is excellent although longer and a more expensive option than "Money and Debt.
And if really ambitious, read "Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt," written by an English Nobel Prize winning physicist Frederick Soddy. It was written about 80 years ago and reads that way. But it is well worth the effort.
Just something to ponder...
Obviously The Rainmaker's hot button was pushed by Diana's material. Hopefully you will find some value in all of this. Even if it is only value equal to a dime, it is 30% more in terms of intrinsic worth than the paper and ink we call money. This is because a dime is actually worth more regardless of the denomination of the bill the paper and ink comprise. That's right the intrinsic value (the worth of each bill, be is $1.00 or $100.00) is about $0.07.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Sir Francis Bacon
The first reaction was "Yeah, right." But then The Rainmaker started to read. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut once every now and then. And The Rainmaker is grateful to be the squirrel that decided to read Diana's insightful thoughts, questions and observations. She might have been Socrates in a former life!
The Rainmaker is really happy to have invested the time to read and ponder Diana's observations on Bacon as well as her wise questions. Hopefully you won't be dissappointed that to have this material inflicted on yourselves.
The email begins by asking the question:
"As a thinking society, what can we learn about ourselves from assessing Sir Roger Bacon's 'Stumbling-Blocks to Truth?'"
All The Rainmaker really knows about Roger Bacon is that he was a pretty amazing dude who lived about the same time as a fellow named Shakespeare was alleged to have lived. There is an emerging consensus (although still significant doubt) that if Shakespeare didn't right his material Bacon is a very likely suspect to be ghost writer. The Rainmaker had never heard of these four stumbling-blocks to groking the truth. An Aside: "Grok" is a term from Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land," the first libertarian book I ever read (almost 40 years ago...ouch!) and the term "grok" means "to know completely." Obviously the definition of "grok" has been grossly simplified for brevity but any fundamentalist Heinlein fans will have to bear with this for now. It's still a great read after all these years.
Back on track: Here is what Peter's email for Diana said about them in full:
"Four very significant stumbling-blocks (are) in the way of grasping the truth, which hinder every man however learned, and scarcely allow anyone to win a clear title to wisdom and truth. (Circa 1214-1294)
They are:
1) submission to faulty and unworthy authority
2) long-standing continuance of custom
3) popular prejudice and regard to the opinion of the unlearned
4) concealment of ones own ignorance while exhibiting wisdom"
The foregoing was obviously, at least to me Bacon's material. The following is from Diana by way of her spouse Peter P.
"We seek truth to analyze problems and to avoid making similar mistakes in the future yet in our politically charged world we find intellectual dihonesty and purposeful chaos.
We ask ourselves:
1) Are these stumbling-blocks to truth and wisdom being used against us?
2) Who in government is telling us the truth?
3) Does the media use it's medium to keep us from obtaining the truth and wisdom?
4) How are the candidates using deception to sway our thinking?
5) How did we get into this economic crise?
Just something to ponder..."
The Rainmaker commented on the Bacon material and responded to Diana's thoughts and points to ponder. Rather than be a typical media outlet The Rainmaker will give you some time to ponder these points on your own before poluting your thought process with Rainmaker opinion, suposition and prejudice. In a day or two, perhaps longer another post will explore the already written observations, thoughts, conclusions, rants and, hopefully, provide the occasional insight.
Until then, hasta la vista!
Friday, October 3, 2008
Interesting Times
Then a gentleman with whom I correspond but who I have never personally met, Peter Poranski (obviously an Irishman), made a comment in an email, which I found fascinating. Peter said that if we elect McCain we'll be a Socialist country in two years, but if we elect Obama we'll be there in six months. So, that leads me to ask, if we are ending up in the same place either way, why vote for the cheap imitation? Clearly "We are the change we have been waiting for!" Obama is the "The Man!"
Nevertheless, all is not well. I write this tonight on my balcony, having watched the sunset over the Potomac, the monuments and, I fear, the Republic.
Today the White House is occupied by a man who pays lip service to Free Markets but then tells the Secretary of the Treasury to do what needs to be done, regardless of the politics and candidate McCain echos that after the Bailout's initial defeat in the House but adds, regardless of the law!
A similar point of view led his predecessor Lyndon Johnson to create the diabolical twins Freddie and Fanny in an effort to hide the financial implications of financing the war in Viet Nam. In 1965, LBJ also brought us the blessings of Medicare, which goes into the red on a cash flow basis in 2010 and depletes it's unfunded Congresional IOUs in 2018; falling 20% short of breakeven thereafter.
Another President, FDR, created another Ponzie Scheme known as Social Security to show "progress" and buy votes in the midst of the Great Depression. This piece of financial sleight of hand goes into cash flow negativity in 2017 and exhausts its unfunded Congressional IOUs in 2042; falling 30% short of returning the "contributions" made by employees thereafter.
Imagine paying into a health insurance plan or savings account and discovering that when you need the money back you should forget about any return on investment at all and will only receive back 80 or 70 cents, respectively on these two entitlement programs, on each dollar of principle you deposited into the system?
Imagine that the consensus solution to put these trains back on the track is to raise the payroll tax, the most regressive tax imposed on Americans, as much as 50% while cutting benefits to close the 20% Medicare and 30% Social Security shortfall.
In other words, all that money we paid into the Medicare and Scoial Seurity surpluses between the 80's and now simply evaporates. Meanwhile we have the satisfaction of knowing the money stolen from each or our pachecks every payday by that bandit FICA has helped fund a solvent and robust Federal Thrift Savings Plan for Federal Employees and Congress Critters, featuring those dreaded personal accounts the rest of us can't be trusted with. FICA has also paid for series of wars, weapons systems and boondogles like the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." Doesn't all that make you proud to be an American?
Wow, if Wall Street did that we'd all be howling that those greedy capitalists should be sent off to jail. Yet your elected leaders over at least 40+ years have done exactly that. My friends (with apologies to John McCain) we have been taken for a ride. Neiher Senator Status nor Senator Quo, as my friend Greg Fossedal calls Obama and McCain, will change this scenario if elected President this November.
As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times." We are well and truly cursed.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part Three
While the price of crude oil has risen in terms of these national currencies, it remains relatively stable in terms of gold. Crude oil is not becoming intrinsically more expensive, rather, the purchasing power of these national currencies continues to diminish. In fact the price of crude oil has remained essentially unchanged for decades when measured in terms of gold. Measurements of other commodities against national currencies and other precious metals will resemble this chart.When measured against gold, most western currencies saddled the the high cost of maintaining a social welfare safety net for their populations are losing purchasing power due to government's deficit spending. In the United States that trend is exacerbated by excessive military spending relative to other countries. If Asian currencies were charted the result would demonstrate a less extreme loss of purchasing power due to cheap labor, higher savings rates and relatively lower expenditures for military and social welfare segments of their economies.
When measured against other western currencies the U. S. dollar is losing its purchasing power at a faster rate. The Rainmaker believes that much of the discrepancy in relative purchasing power between the dollar, pound and euro is largely due to two factors. First is the incredibly bad PR associated with the current American Administration. Second is the fiscal policy of the United States that is incurring record deficits to simultaneously fund two wars, entitlements and the financial sector bail out of the week.
What's next?
Candidly, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. It will take time to replenish all the money collected and misspent by a succession of administrations out of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds. These surpluses have been squandered over more than a generation. That bipartisan breach of fiduciary duty by our elected leadership can't be fixed over night. Given that not one of the major candidates for President throughout 2007 and so far in 2008 has been willing to admit there is a current problem is not cause for optimism. These problems will probably take as long to fix as they took to create. And, the repair work won't even begin until our elected leaders are willing to admit that there is a problem.
How can we protect ourselves, our families and our livlihoods?
The advice is deceptively simple. Work hard, reduce risk, get out of debt, save and put part of your estate into precious metals. Work with your financial advisor to design a personal strategy that maximizes revenue, reduces risk exposure, increases savings and diversifies a portion (how big a portion you should discuss with your financial advisor) of your estate into extractive industries as well as gold, silver and platinum. Follow the yellow brick road.
Friday, August 8, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part Two

Perhaps there is another explanation that doesn't involve just the events since September 2001 but goes deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nation states structure their currencies. What does it all mean?
To understand what it means one must be clear about the question, or really to understand what is "it?"
The meaning isn't so difficult to decipher if one approaches the problem from the proper perspective. Is the intrinsic value of oil or an overnight stay in London that much higher than it was a decade or a year ago? In a word, NO! Or, is the intrinsic value of the dollar that much lower? In a word YES! So, what is the explanation?
This is what The Rainmaker believes "it" means.
Let's begin with what the journalists would call "deep background," which comes in two parts.
First, for more than four generations America's elected leaders, business leaders, our friends and neighbors as well as (perhaps especially) our bankers from the Federal Reserve on down to the community bank next door have busily squandered America's inheiratance. This represents a moral crises involving our leaders and ourselves. The cure starts at home with each of us living within our means, saving, accepting that there really isn't any such thing as a free lunch and building a better future one day at a time by making the right decision in the present. Then America's leadership must focus on the real problems and leave the side shows of lifestyle choice, culture wars and celebrity politics behind forevermore. Until these changes are made the decline begun back in 1913 with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act and the Federal Income Tax, will continue.
Second, the American dream has captured the imagination of people around the world. Chinese, Indians ane Brazilians--as well as the rest of the world--all want what we've got. Their economies are cranking up to deliver the goods. However, those countries, not to mention the Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese and Chileans have a built in advantage in the sense their economies don't have to finance the American military industrial complex, supporting troops garrisoned in more than 100 countries around the world and spending more on the military than all the other countries in the world combined. Nor do those countries sustain a social welfare safety net for their workers. These aspiring Chinese, Indians and Brazilians--and all the rest--are driving demand for commodities, especially oil, creating shortages and posing a serious threat to the relative value of the dollar. In short, goods and services are going to continue to cost more in dollars and dollars are going to continue to be worth less and less against other currencies until and unless we get our act together.
The Rainmaker does not believe that this is a problem unique to the dollar. Why? Read on!
Well to really grasp this one must understand that while the dollar's slide is an American phenomena it is also the symptom of a more serious global problem. Why? Well the dollar, like most national currencies is backed not by real wealth but by debt created by national banks secured only by the full faith and credit of the nation. The Federal Reserve, a privately owned institution, loans currency into existence and the United States (actually the tax payers) guarantees those loans will be repaid. Taxes levied on the income of individuals and corproations pay the debt service. The dollar isn't backed by precious metals. The dollar is backed by our capacity to pay taxes.
One can make the argument that the dollar is not nearly as weak as it currently seems (June 2007) and the current valuation, especially against the Euro is really a function of the incredibly bad PR associated with the current Administration. In fact the fundamentals of the Euro are in many ways worse than the fundamental foundations underpining the dollar. European countries have much more significant entitlement problems, less productive work forces, lower savings rates and higher taxes than Americans. This should eventually enable the dollar to rebound against European currencies and make London hotel rooms a little more affordable.
However these arguments don't hold against the Asian competition.
So, what is the real story? The bottom line is that most all national currencies are ultimately secured by the ability of the national government to collect taxes sufficient to carry the debt due the national bank issuing the currency. How can one judge the severity of our currenty problem? The answer is to look at commodity pricing and currency valuation compared to gold.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
The Yellow Brick Road Part One
This may be a strange ecnomic landscape and nothing we counted on seems safe anymore, but what does it really mean to us as we live our daily lives?
During the last half of the twentieth century, we Americans grew up believing in the inevitability of our day to day reality. What was before would always be. The dollar was the "go to" currency of choice in a world of change and uncertainty. America only fought just wars. American "know how" would always save the day.
However, during the first decade of the twenty first century Americans look around and nothing seems quite so safe any more. The September 2001 attacks were a shock. The failure to find "Weapons of Mass Destruction" in Iraq after the intelligence community assured the President the presence of WMDs was was a "Slam Dunk" and their discovery inevitable, was disheartening. The subsequent failure to "win the peace" in Iraq after such an easy and triumphant invasion was hard to believe.
The seeming financial fall out of the cost of the wars, such as the credit meltdown hammering the banks and mortgage companies, the stock market stagflation, sticker shock at the gas pump and the economic malaise all seem surreal. The fact that the dollar seems to be weaker against other currencies, notably the Euro, and that a decent London hotel now costs $800 per night is simply unbelievable.
What does it all mean? What will happen next? How do we protect our families and ourselves and our business investments in the clinches, which are apparently the fall out of September 11th? This is now what most of us believe to be the relevant question.
But perhaps there is another explanation that doesnt't rely just on the events of September 2001 and has to do with funny stuff like currency management, going deeper into the basic structure of the American and world economies and how modern nations structure thier economies.
Next, the Rainmaker will explore those alternative explanations or our current unfortunate reality.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Millions and Billions and Trillions
In the last posting on this blog lots of big numbers got tossed around. How can someone grasp a number like $77 trillion or even one trillion dollars for that matter?
In a straight forward mathematical context, one thousand multiplied by one thousand equals one million. And a million multiplied by one thousand equals one billion. While a billion times one thousand equals one trillion.
It might be easier to grasp the order of magnitude of these differences if you think of it this way. If a million dollars equates to a single inch, then 1,000 inches or 83.33 feet equates to a billion dollars. And, 1,000 billions equals a trillion dollars, which equates to 15.78 miles. On your next long walk or short car ride, this will help you put the United States’ debt crises into better perspective.
The more we understand the more we appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Times They Are a-Changin'
Why?
Because the United States' economy is about to undergo huge changes due to three overlapping factors:
- Rising inflation;
- The long term continued decline of the dollar; and,
- Entitlement reform.
What do these changes mean? How will they effect each of us? What personal decisions provide the most protection, the lowest risk and the greatest opportunity?
In ancient time inflation usually involved monarchs shaving coins or dilution the precious metals from which those coins were cast. Nowadays, it's much easier because the United States has delegated management of its money to the Federal Reserve (FED), a privately owned bank. The FED can issue money at will with a few computer key strokes.
What does this mean?
It means that the purchasing power of a dollar today is about the same (actually a bit less) than the purchasing power of a nickel back in 1914. 1914 is about the time the U.S. monetary system was privatized and turned over the FED. The same can be said for the Euro, the Yen, British Pounds and other paper currencies around the world. Interestingly the purchasing power of gold in the past 94 years is virtually unchanged. According to the World Gold Council, no paper currency (FIAT currency) has existed longer than a human lifespan and the Federal Reserve Dollar is already a Methuselah at 94 years. I guess we're lucky life expectancy has been climbing.
Why would the FED allow this to happen?
Because the crushing pressure of debt service on the $40 trillion to $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities of Social Security, Medicare, Pensions, the "on budget" National debt, business debt, consumer debt and other costs such as the Iraq war makes it easier to repay that debt with cheaper inflated dollars. Our national policies and spendthrift politicians are debasing the dollar.
However, that's not the whole story. The dollar is also under inflationary pressure because of rising commodity costs. The people of China, India and Brazil all aspire to the "American lifestyle." Energy, metals, food and transportation are becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive.
The situation is unsustainable, eventually forcing whoever serves as President and in Congress to act. What can they do? There are only four alternatives: raise taxes, cut benefits, borrow more or inflate the currency in cooperation with the FED. At the rate the United States economy is deteriorating borrowing may not be an option much longer. Raising taxes is never a popular alternative. And cutting Medicare and/or Social Security benefits is rightfully called the "third rail" of American politics. It's not good for the proverbial political career to take expected benefits away from the electorate.
Regardless of how bad the situation may become, the questions remain about how best to deal with it personally. Obviously it is impossible to offer specific management or investment advice that means anything to you in this post. But in general three observations can be made and a couple of questions can be suggested for you to consider during your next meeting with your investment advisor.
The initial observation is: Although it's clear that something has got to give in the United States when it comes to entitlement reform, don't bet that reform will solve issues confronting successful people. Generally it's easier for politicians to adopt the "Robin Hood" approach and take from the deep pockets to give to the poor and middle class. If you work in a profession (law, medicine, architecture, investment banking), own your own business, or make more than $150,000 a year your pockets are perceived to be deep. You might plan accordingly to protect your assets, your income stream. Remember the old truism: "There is no limit to the good that do-goodees will do with other people's money.
The second observation is: Inflation in the United States is likely to become worse as time goes on. It is simply irresistible for politicians and bankers to avoid paying the price for their past sins as long as possible by using cheaper dollars to pay off old debt. Additionally, every time the FED encounters a financial crises its knee jerk reaction is to soften the blow by injection huge amounts of money into circulation to maintain liquidity. The broadsest measure of money is known as M3 and it's been growing at an annual rate of about 14%. That number is harder to pin down because in March of 2006 the FED decided to stop reporting M3. I suppose it became something of an embarrassment. In 2008 the FED has continued its practice of bailing out the economy by injecting vast amounts of cash for such worthy efforts as the Bear Stearns, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac "bailouts." In a couple of years Medicare will begin to experience a huge cash flow crunch and one must wonder at whether even the FED can bail out that entitlement. Then in 2018 Social Security will experience its own cash crises.
The final observation is: The dollar is probably about to stabilize at least in the short term. The dollar will probably reach equilibrium at least relative to the Euro because the the Euro is beset by generally unrecognized structural problems such as unsustainable entitlement and tax policies that are actually worse than those facing the dollar. Asian countries artificially maintain cheap currencies relative to real dollar exchange values to facilitate exports to the United States. If those policies change due to the perceived credit risk of American debt and/or the increased ability of Indians, Brazilians and Chinese to consume their output, then all bets are off and the dollar could go into free fall.
Here are a couple of starter questions that you might want to consider asking when you next meet your investment advisor:
- First, with Medicare set to go cash flow negative in 2011 according to the Trustees Report issued last spring, does it make sense to pour a lot of capital into your business? Since medical care is such a huge part of our economy this applies across the board, but especially if you are in the medical professions?
- Second, with the upward pressure on commodities and downward pressure on the dollar does it make sense to increase the percentage of retirement portfolio invested in commodities, precious metals and companies that provide those, while seeking instruments in other currencies?
One final word of caution: However tempting it might be to give up the day job and invest in commodities, currency or anything else full time, it is strongly advised not to attempt this at home. Investment advisers who do this for a living may cost some management fees, but that is a small price to pay for avoiding undue and unknown risks in areas about which you have too little knowledge to even identify those risks.
Although the situation appears critical, a well prepared and fully informed investor can prosper even in the worst of times. It's time to do your homework, consult with your investment advisor and devise a prudent strategy to preserve your capital! "The times they are a-changin'!"