Friday, January 23, 2009
"For whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap."
Incurring long term debt to finance consumption, speculating on successive stock, then real estate bubbles and dependence on unsustainable health and old age entitlements all carry costs. There really is no such thing as a free lunch.
The United States has been on a binge of funny money, entitlements, easy credit and unsustainable consumption for almost 100 years. Now its time to pay the piper. How bad will it be?
When the stock market crashed in the early 30s, it required 14 years after the bottom to recoup the lost value. That is probably a reasonable estimate of the time required for America to recover from this financial hangover, once we reach the bottom.
When will that depth be reached? Hopefully in 2009, but possibly not until 2010 when Medicare goes "cash flow negative." Possibly not until 2017 when Social Security follows suit.
The only certainty is that however long it took to dig this hole, it will probably take that long to climb out.
The risk is that in the attempt to stop the current bleeding a new bubble is being created, a currency bubble. The Federal government together with the Federal Reserve are inflating the currency to incredible levels in the so far futile effort to sustain liquidity. If they go too far, pass some ill defined unknown tipping point, then it's possible that hyperinflation could result.
To appreciate what that might mean read a little history about Germany during the third decade of the 20th Century. The crises eventually led to the end of the fledgling German Republic, which was replaced by the Third Reich.
In other words, our current situation is bad but it could easily get worse.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Janus
The end is thankfully near for the Bush Administration while, ever hopeful, the world awaits the begining of the Obama era. Seldom has there been such optimism surrounding an individual as that which surrounds Obama. This despite the early indications that rather than delivering change he is opting for continuity.
The end is at hand for 2008, yet the damage done to the markets over the past several decades appears likely to continue to arrive for the forseeable future. A recent prediction in the Wall Street Journal based on a mathmetical analysis of 27 million mortgages asserts that the 60 day deliquency rate for mortgages will almost double before the end of 2009, which has yet to begin.
The end appears to be beginning to arrive for the misadventure in Iraq, while the next surge is being launched into Afghanistan. The end of the war began on 9/11/01 appears illusive. Already this is the longest war in the history of America.
Each of us has our own endings and beginnings to ponder as 2008 withers and 2009 approaches. May your endings be happy ones and may your beginings bring you succdess as well as pleasure!
Saturday, December 6, 2008
The Emperor Has No Clothes!
In a recent essay published at Lew Rockwell's site, Butler Shaffer pointed out the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the Republican Party. According to Shaffer, the GOP, the "Grand Old Party," is now on a crusade to create "resistance to Obama's socialist agenda over the next four years," and to "stop Obama's plans to bring socialism to America."
Yet, Shaffer asks, where were the Republicans "when their GOP president, George W. Bush, was engaging in wars that put billions of dollars into the pockets of their corporate friends, and led the same president to state, to members of Congress, that he would declare martial law if they did not pass legislation bestowing hundreds of billions of dollars of largess upon Wall Street banking interests? Is the GOP so hopelessly bankrupt that some of its members must resort to a distinction without meaning that condemns state socialism while ignoring its own contributions to the state-sponsored economic destruction emanating from a Republican White House?" Shaffer asks is the Grand Old Party "henceforth to be known as the "Grasping Omnipotent Plutocracy?"
Shaffer points out the "fundamental distinction" between the mythical "free market" and the currently dominant "business system" is the "socializing the costs of doing business, while privatizing the profits." The Bailouts, projected to eventually cost in the neighborhood of $7.7 trillion are evidence. What makes a large financial institution or auto manufacturer for that matter worthy of a Bailout? This last question is being asked now that the Democrats are getting into the plunder and pillage mode to protect their power base funded in large measure by the precious union contracts that are bankrupting American car companies. What disqualifies individual home owners from a Bailout? Clearly the only meaningful distinction is membership in the Plutocracy.
And what pray tell does this really mean to each of us? Shaffer shows the math is simple. Each of us, every man, woman and child in the United States is now on the hook for about $25,000 in additional debt. Divide the cost of the bailout by the population of the country: $7,700,000,000,000 by 300,000,000 and you'll find The Rainmaker has understated the number a tad. Hopefully you enjoyed the party over the past few months.
The Rainmaker doesn't mean to quibble with Butler Shaffer, in fact we have no disagreement with him at all beyond the fact that he doesn't carry the analysis far enough.
In fact, Butler Shaffer is correct and the Republican Administration's actions are socializing risk while privatizing profit. But, Congressional Democrats have worked hand in glove with the Administration. Now, the same folks who designed and are executing the Bailout for the Bush Administration have been tapped by the incoming Democratic Administration to serve as our economic stewards for the at least the next four years. Clearly there is a consensus in Washington among the Republicrat and Demopublican factions of the Plutocracy to change nothing.
And, the hits just keep on coming. There will eventually be another $3 trillion of debt associated with the current wars. And, beginning in 2010 the Medicare system is cash flow negative, which is a $36.6 trillion problem. Then in 2017 Social Security goes under water at an unfunded cost of $7 trillion. There is also the nontrivial matter of unfunded pension liabilities guaranteed by the government and other miscellaneous obligations that add up to another $600 million. There is also the national debt accumulated over the past fifty or so years, which was about $8 trillion back in July. All those numbers on the entitlements and pensions are according to Fortune Magazine in their special report on the U.S. economy published November 24, 2003.
Thus the real financial fiasco is thought to total at least $55 trillion and, brace yourself, your share is in the neighborhood of $180,000 rather than the mere $25,000 suggested by Butler Shaffer for the fall follies in Washington. And, the politicians aren't done yet.
Neither are you. A few days ago we pointed out that government can't give anything to anyone without eventually taking it from someone else. That someone else is you, your children and your grandchildren. Where will you and each member of your family come up with that $180,000? Many of you will say tax the rich and of course to some degree that will happen, but the rich ways of gaming the system to limit their exposure. Others will say tax the corporations and that will happen. But ultimately those corporate taxes will be passed along to you as higher prices. One way or another the government is coming to your home and your family looking for that money.
The Rainmaker thanks Roger for the following thought provoking observation written by Scottish history professor Alexander Tyler in the late 18th century on the subject of the end of the Athenian Republic:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During these 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:
1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual Faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence; and,
8. From dependence back into bondage."
If you have any doubts about what is happening in these United States, read "Dependent on DC," by Charlotte Twight.
Can the American Republic be the exception Tyler's theory? That is up to us. Do your really expect to get the change you can believe in from the Obama Administration? If so there is also a bridge you might be interested in buying.
Or, is it perhaps time to follow the example of John Galt and vote with our feet before it is too late?
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Continuity We Can Believe In
Of course the President elect does have one thing in common with his predecessor the President select in that both made it perfectly clear early on that, in the immortal fractured syntax of the President select, "I am the decider." Can the new Administration deliver real and meaningful change?
Stay tuned.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Interesting Times
Then a gentleman with whom I correspond but who I have never personally met, Peter Poranski (obviously an Irishman), made a comment in an email, which I found fascinating. Peter said that if we elect McCain we'll be a Socialist country in two years, but if we elect Obama we'll be there in six months. So, that leads me to ask, if we are ending up in the same place either way, why vote for the cheap imitation? Clearly "We are the change we have been waiting for!" Obama is the "The Man!"
Nevertheless, all is not well. I write this tonight on my balcony, having watched the sunset over the Potomac, the monuments and, I fear, the Republic.
Today the White House is occupied by a man who pays lip service to Free Markets but then tells the Secretary of the Treasury to do what needs to be done, regardless of the politics and candidate McCain echos that after the Bailout's initial defeat in the House but adds, regardless of the law!
A similar point of view led his predecessor Lyndon Johnson to create the diabolical twins Freddie and Fanny in an effort to hide the financial implications of financing the war in Viet Nam. In 1965, LBJ also brought us the blessings of Medicare, which goes into the red on a cash flow basis in 2010 and depletes it's unfunded Congresional IOUs in 2018; falling 20% short of breakeven thereafter.
Another President, FDR, created another Ponzie Scheme known as Social Security to show "progress" and buy votes in the midst of the Great Depression. This piece of financial sleight of hand goes into cash flow negativity in 2017 and exhausts its unfunded Congressional IOUs in 2042; falling 30% short of returning the "contributions" made by employees thereafter.
Imagine paying into a health insurance plan or savings account and discovering that when you need the money back you should forget about any return on investment at all and will only receive back 80 or 70 cents, respectively on these two entitlement programs, on each dollar of principle you deposited into the system?
Imagine that the consensus solution to put these trains back on the track is to raise the payroll tax, the most regressive tax imposed on Americans, as much as 50% while cutting benefits to close the 20% Medicare and 30% Social Security shortfall.
In other words, all that money we paid into the Medicare and Scoial Seurity surpluses between the 80's and now simply evaporates. Meanwhile we have the satisfaction of knowing the money stolen from each or our pachecks every payday by that bandit FICA has helped fund a solvent and robust Federal Thrift Savings Plan for Federal Employees and Congress Critters, featuring those dreaded personal accounts the rest of us can't be trusted with. FICA has also paid for series of wars, weapons systems and boondogles like the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." Doesn't all that make you proud to be an American?
Wow, if Wall Street did that we'd all be howling that those greedy capitalists should be sent off to jail. Yet your elected leaders over at least 40+ years have done exactly that. My friends (with apologies to John McCain) we have been taken for a ride. Neiher Senator Status nor Senator Quo, as my friend Greg Fossedal calls Obama and McCain, will change this scenario if elected President this November.
As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times." We are well and truly cursed.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Three Mysteries of Partisan Politics
Consider just these two examples:
First: The financial markets seem to be imploding and the candidates are AWOL, failing to even mention the $50 trillion dollars of current debt on the books, which doesn't begin to account for unfunded liabilities such as Social Security, Medicare, pensions and such.
Second: The candidates abhor the failure of the health market but basically pander to voters promising universal coverage and affordability to all while somehow missing the fact that Medicare is going cash flow negative at some point within the first term of the winning candidate.
Those two examples merely typify the disconnect between the candidates and reality. This disconnect can be attributed to the lust for power and glory silencing any meaningful dialogue while we debate the meaning and significance of lipstick, pigs and lipstick on pigs.
The three mysteries are even more troubling.
The first mystery is the Democratic Mystery. While the Democratic Party champions personal freedom of speech, association, sexuality and religion it cares little for economic freedom and property rights. In other words you are free to do whatever you want but what is yours is ours if it is necessary to win a few votes.
The second mystery is the Republican Mystery. While the Republican Party champions economic freedom it stifles individual liberty in most respects. In other words, your ownership of property is sacrosanct but your body is not your own.
The final mystery is the Statist Mystery. The slavish and rabid devotion to the health, well being and primacy of the State is totally incomprehensible. The founders believed the individual to be sovereign. But while both major political parties purport to celebrate individual liberty, both seem to have forgotten two pillars of limited government included in the Bill of Rights.
The 9th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."
The 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says:
"The Powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the states respectively or to the people."
Over the past couple of centuries we have ceased to be personally sovereign and have become chattel of the State. How else can one explain the reality we experience in our day to day lives.
Imagine Ben Franklin being forced to remove his shoes and coat and subject his luggage to search in order to travel, foregoing his right to be secure from search and seizure guaranteed to him (as well as to you and me) in the fourth amendment to the Constitution.
Indeed it was Franklin who said, "They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security." Consider this the next time you transit an airport. Do the buffoons of the TSA really accomplish anything beyond making a silly show of officious pseudo security?
Enough of the digression, the Rainmaker will return to the underlying point.
The bottom line is the current reality is nonsensical to the point of absurdity. The government of the United States of America does a poor job of securing the inalienable rights invoked in the Declaration of Independence that include "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."
What exactly are you going to do about that? Probably not enough!
Friday, July 25, 2008
The Wisdom of the Prophet
"He ventured forth to bring light to the world!
In which missive the scribe describes how, "The anointed one' pilgrimage to the Holy Land is a miracle in action-and a blessing to all his faithful followers!"
I invite you to click on the following link and enjoy the read:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4392846.ece
You might actually find political enlightenment as you ponder the scribe's words.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Millions and Billions and Trillions
In the last posting on this blog lots of big numbers got tossed around. How can someone grasp a number like $77 trillion or even one trillion dollars for that matter?
In a straight forward mathematical context, one thousand multiplied by one thousand equals one million. And a million multiplied by one thousand equals one billion. While a billion times one thousand equals one trillion.
It might be easier to grasp the order of magnitude of these differences if you think of it this way. If a million dollars equates to a single inch, then 1,000 inches or 83.33 feet equates to a billion dollars. And, 1,000 billions equals a trillion dollars, which equates to 15.78 miles. On your next long walk or short car ride, this will help you put the United States’ debt crises into better perspective.
The more we understand the more we appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Times They Are a-Changin'
Why?
Because the United States' economy is about to undergo huge changes due to three overlapping factors:
- Rising inflation;
- The long term continued decline of the dollar; and,
- Entitlement reform.
What do these changes mean? How will they effect each of us? What personal decisions provide the most protection, the lowest risk and the greatest opportunity?
In ancient time inflation usually involved monarchs shaving coins or dilution the precious metals from which those coins were cast. Nowadays, it's much easier because the United States has delegated management of its money to the Federal Reserve (FED), a privately owned bank. The FED can issue money at will with a few computer key strokes.
What does this mean?
It means that the purchasing power of a dollar today is about the same (actually a bit less) than the purchasing power of a nickel back in 1914. 1914 is about the time the U.S. monetary system was privatized and turned over the FED. The same can be said for the Euro, the Yen, British Pounds and other paper currencies around the world. Interestingly the purchasing power of gold in the past 94 years is virtually unchanged. According to the World Gold Council, no paper currency (FIAT currency) has existed longer than a human lifespan and the Federal Reserve Dollar is already a Methuselah at 94 years. I guess we're lucky life expectancy has been climbing.
Why would the FED allow this to happen?
Because the crushing pressure of debt service on the $40 trillion to $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities of Social Security, Medicare, Pensions, the "on budget" National debt, business debt, consumer debt and other costs such as the Iraq war makes it easier to repay that debt with cheaper inflated dollars. Our national policies and spendthrift politicians are debasing the dollar.
However, that's not the whole story. The dollar is also under inflationary pressure because of rising commodity costs. The people of China, India and Brazil all aspire to the "American lifestyle." Energy, metals, food and transportation are becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive.
The situation is unsustainable, eventually forcing whoever serves as President and in Congress to act. What can they do? There are only four alternatives: raise taxes, cut benefits, borrow more or inflate the currency in cooperation with the FED. At the rate the United States economy is deteriorating borrowing may not be an option much longer. Raising taxes is never a popular alternative. And cutting Medicare and/or Social Security benefits is rightfully called the "third rail" of American politics. It's not good for the proverbial political career to take expected benefits away from the electorate.
Regardless of how bad the situation may become, the questions remain about how best to deal with it personally. Obviously it is impossible to offer specific management or investment advice that means anything to you in this post. But in general three observations can be made and a couple of questions can be suggested for you to consider during your next meeting with your investment advisor.
The initial observation is: Although it's clear that something has got to give in the United States when it comes to entitlement reform, don't bet that reform will solve issues confronting successful people. Generally it's easier for politicians to adopt the "Robin Hood" approach and take from the deep pockets to give to the poor and middle class. If you work in a profession (law, medicine, architecture, investment banking), own your own business, or make more than $150,000 a year your pockets are perceived to be deep. You might plan accordingly to protect your assets, your income stream. Remember the old truism: "There is no limit to the good that do-goodees will do with other people's money.
The second observation is: Inflation in the United States is likely to become worse as time goes on. It is simply irresistible for politicians and bankers to avoid paying the price for their past sins as long as possible by using cheaper dollars to pay off old debt. Additionally, every time the FED encounters a financial crises its knee jerk reaction is to soften the blow by injection huge amounts of money into circulation to maintain liquidity. The broadsest measure of money is known as M3 and it's been growing at an annual rate of about 14%. That number is harder to pin down because in March of 2006 the FED decided to stop reporting M3. I suppose it became something of an embarrassment. In 2008 the FED has continued its practice of bailing out the economy by injecting vast amounts of cash for such worthy efforts as the Bear Stearns, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac "bailouts." In a couple of years Medicare will begin to experience a huge cash flow crunch and one must wonder at whether even the FED can bail out that entitlement. Then in 2018 Social Security will experience its own cash crises.
The final observation is: The dollar is probably about to stabilize at least in the short term. The dollar will probably reach equilibrium at least relative to the Euro because the the Euro is beset by generally unrecognized structural problems such as unsustainable entitlement and tax policies that are actually worse than those facing the dollar. Asian countries artificially maintain cheap currencies relative to real dollar exchange values to facilitate exports to the United States. If those policies change due to the perceived credit risk of American debt and/or the increased ability of Indians, Brazilians and Chinese to consume their output, then all bets are off and the dollar could go into free fall.
Here are a couple of starter questions that you might want to consider asking when you next meet your investment advisor:
- First, with Medicare set to go cash flow negative in 2011 according to the Trustees Report issued last spring, does it make sense to pour a lot of capital into your business? Since medical care is such a huge part of our economy this applies across the board, but especially if you are in the medical professions?
- Second, with the upward pressure on commodities and downward pressure on the dollar does it make sense to increase the percentage of retirement portfolio invested in commodities, precious metals and companies that provide those, while seeking instruments in other currencies?
One final word of caution: However tempting it might be to give up the day job and invest in commodities, currency or anything else full time, it is strongly advised not to attempt this at home. Investment advisers who do this for a living may cost some management fees, but that is a small price to pay for avoiding undue and unknown risks in areas about which you have too little knowledge to even identify those risks.
Although the situation appears critical, a well prepared and fully informed investor can prosper even in the worst of times. It's time to do your homework, consult with your investment advisor and devise a prudent strategy to preserve your capital! "The times they are a-changin'!"
Monday, July 21, 2008
WARNING:
Thanks for this to Margrit.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
The Invisible Hand
We know because centralized decision making has failed over and over. The grand experiments with state control of the economy failed repeatedly, most notably in the former USSR and the People's Republic of China. In fact the Chinese ecnomic miracle was made possible by Comrade Deng's decision to embrace decentralized economic decision making a few decades ago.
Other less well known failures of centralized economic decision making abound, featuring "deciders" such as the despot de jure of various third world countries as well as World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or Fannie Mae.
But what is the alternative?
Clearly, given a chance people will make the best economic decisions they can. Eventually they do the right thing and positive unintended consequences result for all of us.
Today we have two examples of this phenomena reported in the Washington Post. One is an effort by baseball, and other pro sports to "go green." (See: "Green Becomes the Official Color of Baseball" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/) Another describes an economic phenomena resulting in 10% of electric power in Texas now coming from wind energy. (See: "The Aswer's In The Wind--and Sun" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/)
These examples required zero government intervention or interference. People and corporations are following their elightened self interest; simply doing well by doing good.
Back in 1776 at the same time as the American experiement inspired by self interest began exploring a new theory of individual sovereignty in the "Declaration of Independence," a Scottsman named Adam Smith wrote "The Wealth of Nations." In it he predicted that "the invisible hand" would motivate the exact sort of outcomes as the Washington Post reported in today's paper.
I wonder how the baseball teams and wind generation companies managed without Al Gore, Congress and whoever becomes President telling them what to do.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
The Way Things Are
The grass still grows. The sky is blue. The wind blows. People fall in and out of love, or at least lust. There is food to eat and water to drink. Most of us are clothed and housed. The television can be ignored mostly. We have music and movies and books and sports and the Internet to entertain us. Our children are above average. Our spouses and significant others still speak to us for the most part.
Of course the politicians still lie. There is crime and too many people are locked up for things that only harm themselves. Taxes are high. The money isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on and can’t be trusted. People die. But, in the grand scheme of things how much does any of that really matter to most of us.
If any of it really matters to you, get a life. Enjoy a good meal, listen to some good music and chill out.
Why ask why? Go ahead and order a Bud and forget about it.
That’s right, ignore the politicians. Live your life here and now. Tell the truth and be truthful. Pay the taxes you can’t avoid. Put your paper money into real assets. Laugh a little, hopefully a lot. Chill out. Ignore the politicians.
It is time to launch the Second American Revolution.
This Revolution isn’t to be fought with guns and bombs. This is a nonviolent revolution. Well, it will be nonviolent on the part of the revolutionaries. There are no guarantees what the government will do or how it will react. The soldiers in this revolution are all of us who have had enough and are voting with our feet. Opt out. Or, put another way, “Tune in, Turn on and Drop out!”
Why not? Do we really care who the President sleeps with? Do we really want to participate in a system that stations troops in more than 140 countries around the world? Do we think it’s right for those troops to be teaching military and police in those countries to torture and maim and kill the people living in those countries? Do we think our government should really be creating a series of trade agreements to make it easier of multinational companies, especially the “fortunate five hundred” to become the ultimate welfare recipients as they are subsidized in their export of American jobs? Do we believe we really need over 1,200 SWAT teams in communities across the country from Maine to Maui? Do we really want the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to be able to listen to every phone call and read every email message we send? Do we believe it’s the job of the national government to decide what we teach our children? Do we really have to be forced to save for our retirement? Do we require the national government to tell us what is or isn’t clean air or water? Do we really need the national government to run our lives? Are we really that stupid?
If you answered yes to any of those questions that’s fine. But you might not enjoy this blog.
Some will say, “Do we really need a national government at all?” Yeah, we probably do. That government should provide for the common defense, assure the availability of sound money (not just paper backed by debt instruments), protect civil liberties and maintain a judiciary to resolve disputes. But, “The Nanny State,” as we know it, is obsolete and didn’t work anyway.