Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt

Frederick Soddy, winner of the Nobel Prize in 1921, wrote "Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt" in 1926, which anticipated the market crash of 1929. Given the current state of the economy perhaps it is time to revisit Soddy.

Soddy points out the the real world is subject to the laws of physics while the economic world is subject only to the laws of mathematics. Thus there is a limit to what humanity can physically produce and consume, which Soddy defines as wealth. But Soddy sees no theoretical limit to the amount of debt that humanity can incur. Virtual wealth is what we call money, a representation of wealth that can be traded as a medium of exchange or held as a store of value.

Why, asked Soddy should a medium of exchange and store of value representing real wealth be treated as a debt incurring an interest charge?

Yet debt based monetary systems, such as the Dollar, Euro, Yen and almost all other national currencies, compound debt through interest charges without regard to real wealth, creating obligations that can never be repaid. Every dollar in our pocket, checking account, savings account and retirement account incurs an interest charge collected by the Federal Reserve, a privately owned bank. Yet, we didn't borrow those dollars, we earned them. Why are we paying interest on those dollars?

When it is no longer possible to carry the debt (pay the interest and repay the principal) the debtor is in default and his or her property is seized by the debt holder (financial institutions, banks and ultimately the owners of the Federal Reserve). Thus there is a tendency in our ecnomy to concentrate wealth in fewer hands over time.

Soddy understood the inherent impossibility of a debt based monetary system to be sustainable. Such a system borrows money into existence without regard to real wealth, incurs an interest charge to use currency as a medium of exchange and multiplies debt without regard to the physical world's ability to carry or service the debt (pay the interest and repay the original principal)accumulated by a fractional reserve banking system.

"Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt" is still in print and worth reading for anyone wondering what is really going on in today's economy.

The Emperor Has No Clothes!

Butler Shaffer is a free man. He has also been called an anarchist. Butler Shaffer earns a living by teaching at a law school, where it is certain he is unlike few if any other law professors on the planet. Why, because he recognizes that the ultimate source of sovereign power is the individual, not the state.

In a recent essay published at Lew Rockwell's site, Butler Shaffer pointed out the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the Republican Party. According to Shaffer, the GOP, the "Grand Old Party," is now on a crusade to create "resistance to Obama's socialist agenda over the next four years," and to "stop Obama's plans to bring socialism to America."

Yet, Shaffer asks, where were the Republicans "when their GOP president, George W. Bush, was engaging in wars that put billions of dollars into the pockets of their corporate friends, and led the same president to state, to members of Congress, that he would declare martial law if they did not pass legislation bestowing hundreds of billions of dollars of largess upon Wall Street banking interests? Is the GOP so hopelessly bankrupt that some of its members must resort to a distinction without meaning that condemns state socialism while ignoring its own contributions to the state-sponsored economic destruction emanating from a Republican White House?" Shaffer asks is the Grand Old Party "henceforth to be known as the "Grasping Omnipotent Plutocracy?"

Shaffer points out the "fundamental distinction" between the mythical "free market" and the currently dominant "business system" is the "socializing the costs of doing business, while privatizing the profits." The Bailouts, projected to eventually cost in the neighborhood of $7.7 trillion are evidence. What makes a large financial institution or auto manufacturer for that matter worthy of a Bailout? This last question is being asked now that the Democrats are getting into the plunder and pillage mode to protect their power base funded in large measure by the precious union contracts that are bankrupting American car companies. What disqualifies individual home owners from a Bailout? Clearly the only meaningful distinction is membership in the Plutocracy.

And what pray tell does this really mean to each of us? Shaffer shows the math is simple. Each of us, every man, woman and child in the United States is now on the hook for about $25,000 in additional debt. Divide the cost of the bailout by the population of the country: $7,700,000,000,000 by 300,000,000 and you'll find The Rainmaker has understated the number a tad. Hopefully you enjoyed the party over the past few months.

The Rainmaker doesn't mean to quibble with Butler Shaffer, in fact we have no disagreement with him at all beyond the fact that he doesn't carry the analysis far enough.

In fact, Butler Shaffer is correct and the Republican Administration's actions are socializing risk while privatizing profit. But, Congressional Democrats have worked hand in glove with the Administration. Now, the same folks who designed and are executing the Bailout for the Bush Administration have been tapped by the incoming Democratic Administration to serve as our economic stewards for the at least the next four years. Clearly there is a consensus in Washington among the Republicrat and Demopublican factions of the Plutocracy to change nothing.

And, the hits just keep on coming. There will eventually be another $3 trillion of debt associated with the current wars. And, beginning in 2010 the Medicare system is cash flow negative, which is a $36.6 trillion problem. Then in 2017 Social Security goes under water at an unfunded cost of $7 trillion. There is also the nontrivial matter of unfunded pension liabilities guaranteed by the government and other miscellaneous obligations that add up to another $600 million. There is also the national debt accumulated over the past fifty or so years, which was about $8 trillion back in July. All those numbers on the entitlements and pensions are according to Fortune Magazine in their special report on the U.S. economy published November 24, 2003.

Thus the real financial fiasco is thought to total at least $55 trillion and, brace yourself, your share is in the neighborhood of $180,000 rather than the mere $25,000 suggested by Butler Shaffer for the fall follies in Washington. And, the politicians aren't done yet.

Neither are you. A few days ago we pointed out that government can't give anything to anyone without eventually taking it from someone else. That someone else is you, your children and your grandchildren. Where will you and each member of your family come up with that $180,000? Many of you will say tax the rich and of course to some degree that will happen, but the rich ways of gaming the system to limit their exposure. Others will say tax the corporations and that will happen. But ultimately those corporate taxes will be passed along to you as higher prices. One way or another the government is coming to your home and your family looking for that money.

The Rainmaker thanks Roger for the following thought provoking observation written by Scottish history professor Alexander Tyler in the late 18th century on the subject of the end of the Athenian Republic:

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During these 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:

1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual Faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence; and,
8. From dependence back into bondage."

If you have any doubts about what is happening in these United States, read "Dependent on DC," by Charlotte Twight.

Can the American Republic be the exception Tyler's theory? That is up to us. Do your really expect to get the change you can believe in from the Obama Administration? If so there is also a bridge you might be interested in buying.

Or, is it perhaps time to follow the example of John Galt and vote with our feet before it is too late?

OZ on the Potomac

The monuments of Washington, DC are beautiful tonight, well lit reminders of what was once the last best hope of the planet. OZ is indeed visually impressive. Yet, OZ is rapidly becoming an empty facade where the streets are paved in worthless greenbacks. The wheels of America's government still turn smoothly, its entitlements, earmarks and various and sundry wars, humming like a fine tooled machine fueled by endless debt. And, the weather is delightful tonight, crisp, clear and cool. It's after midnight and we are safe for at least a few hours, Congress has adjourned for the evening and the Wizard sleeps.

However, the fate of the nation hangs in the balance. Financial markets are in turmoil. Tomorrow Congress will continue to debate the terms and conditions of the "Mother of all Bailouts."

OZ, this mythical bastion of Capitalism and free markets, has become something akin to a National Socialist State. Consider on the one hand the "Storm Troopers" of the Department of Homeland Security using fear to justify tyranny who are a matched pair with thousands of SWAT teams intent on imprisioning more people in both absolute and per capita terms than any other nation on earth in a futile effort to win a "War on Drugs." America has become a police state. Meanwhile, on the other hand, companies deemed "too big to fail" are being taken over by a government and thus insulated from the consequences of their mistakes and their corruption. The "Land of the free and the home of the brave" has become a phantom or a figmant of imaginative spin doctors.

Nobody knows how the masters of our universal debt, America's creditors, will react. If the Asians, Indians, Arabs and Europeans don't approve of the terms of the "Mother of all Bailouts," they could sell their multi trillion dollar currency stash and call their multi trillion dollars in government notes; dumping their assets like so much sand into the fine tuned gearbox of America's debt based Empire and dismantling the "shining city on the hill." Of course the resulting disorder might consume them as well. That consideration might yet preserve the status quo for a time. Where will it all end? Who can know?

Meanwhile those who contend to become the new Wizard stalk the countryside. What to they think? Not much. What do they really say? Even less. They would rather talk about something else; almost anything else. The current financial melt down is beyond their comprehension. One calls for "Change," yet represents the status quo of a generation of failed policies. The other is comitted to the maintainence of Empire and continuation of the never ending war, while confessing he doesn't understand economics. The focus of the race has devolved to identity politics revolving around the race of the Presidential nominee of one party and the sex of the Vice Presidential nominee of the other party. America's media, political elites and the vast majority of American voters really have no clue as to what really matters.

It is said that when Rome burned Nero played the fiddle. One doubts that any of the national candidates who would be the new Wizard have enough musical talent to emulate him. Yet make no mistake, OZ is engulfed in financial flames lit four score and fifteen years by the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913; creating a fiat currency inspired insanity. The consequences of those decisions can't be avoided much longer.

The moral of this story is: Buy precious metals.

Where the Jobs Are

Have you ever read Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged?"



It's an amazing book about the productive members of society becoming discouraged and fed up as their labor is appropriated to carry the rest of society.



There are interesting aspects of our society today that indicate we are getting closer to the reality Rand found so disturbing that she wrote a book about what might happen if the producers who earn their way decided they have had enough.



Eventually the producers withdraw from society and move to Galt's Gulch, founded by the infamous John Galt, one of Rand's heroes in "Atlas Shrugged." Remember the graffiti from a few decades ago asking "Who is John Galt?" Others wrote "Where is John Galt?"



As Wikipedia describes Rand's social commentary:



"Rand's heroes must continually fight against the 'Parasites', 'looters', and 'moochers' of the society around them."



"The looters are those who confiscate others' earnings "at the point of a gun" (figuratively speaking)--often because they are government officials, and thus their demands are backed by the threat of force."



Yesterday the Washington Post carried a story describing the increasing levels of unemployment in virtually every productive sector of the economy as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's not a pretty picture on the whole.



For example in July of 2007 there were 7.63 million Americans who earned a living through construction, but in July of this year only 7.17 million jobs were available in that sector. The total employment declined 6% in one twelve months.



In the manufacturing sector the total employment declined 2% from 13.8 million jobs in July 2007 to 13.5 million one year later.



15.3 million Americans worked in the retail sector this July, down 2% from the 15.48 million who had jobs a year earlier.



Only 200,000 Americans lost their jobs between July 07 and 08 in the transportation industry; a mere 4/10 of 1% decline.



Both the financial sector (banking/real estate) and professional services sector (lawyers, managers and administrators) had an even smaller relative decline of 2/10 of 1%; losing 120,000 financial services jobs and 400,000 professional jobs and ending up at a total employment of 8.21 million and 17.91 million respectively. Perhaps Bear Stearns really was an anomaly.



There was however some good news, at least if you aren't an Ayn Rand aficionado. In the 12 months ending July 2008 four of ten sectors experienced job growth according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• The biggest percentage gain--4%--was in Education, gaining 120,000 jobs and ending at 3.08 million workers.


• Next in job growth performance during the year was the health care sector with a 3% gain, ending July with 370,000 new workers for a total workforce of 13.33 million Americans.


• The government sector (federal and local) hired an additional 350,000 Americans, realizing 2% job growth.


• The leisure and entertainment sector, which includes hotels, also posted a 2% gain. As of this July 13.68 million Americans work in this sector, 210,000 more than last July.

So why would Ayn have a problem with 1,050,000 new jobs? It's simple really, except for the 210,000 new hires in leisure and entertainment, the other 840,000 lucky new hires in the remaining three growth sectors don't really produce anything.

Ayn would call them parasites, looters and moochers. All these areas (even the medical sector due to Medicare and Medicade) are highly dependent on tax transfer payments from the working stiffs, entrepreneurs, investors etc. who cause real growth.

Ayn presumably wouldn't have a problem if the taxes paid by the construction workers, manufacturers, retailers, transportation workers, financial workers and professionals paid their taxes voluntarily, but of course that isn't the way the world works. She would also have problems with the fact that the benefits, especially retirement benefits accorded government workers (think: Thrift Savings vs. Social Security, retire after 20 years vs. retire after 45+ years if ever, etc.) are so much better than what the rest of society can expect. But, that's another story.

If you want to know where the jobs are, there is the answer. The bottom line is you are less likely to get laid off if the paycheck is funded by taxes collected, as Ayn would say, at the point of a gun.

The Invisible Hand

Al Gore recently made news saying within ten years non carbon sources should provide all electricity generation in the United States. That would be a laudable outcome. Of course it won't happen unless there is a government mandate. Mr. Gore obviously has no problem with government making these decisions. But, candidly, that isn't the way the world really works. How do we know?

We know because centralized decision making has failed over and over. The grand experiments with state control of the economy failed repeatedly, most notably in the former USSR and the People's Republic of China. In fact the Chinese ecnomic miracle was made possible by Comrade Deng's decision to embrace decentralized economic decision making a few decades ago.

Other less well known failures of centralized economic decision making abound, featuring "deciders" such as the despot de jure of various third world countries as well as World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or Fannie Mae.

But what is the alternative?

Clearly, given a chance people will make the best economic decisions they can. Eventually they do the right thing and positive unintended consequences result for all of us.

Today we have two examples of this phenomena reported in the Washington Post. One is an effort by baseball, and other pro sports to "go green." (See: "Green Becomes the Official Color of Baseball" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/) Another describes an economic phenomena resulting in 10% of electric power in Texas now coming from wind energy. (See: "The Aswer's In The Wind--and Sun" July 19, 2008 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/)

These examples required zero government intervention or interference. People and corporations are following their elightened self interest; simply doing well by doing good.

Back in 1776 at the same time as the American experiement inspired by self interest began exploring a new theory of individual sovereignty in the "Declaration of Independence," a Scottsman named Adam Smith wrote "The Wealth of Nations." In it he predicted that "the invisible hand" would motivate the exact sort of outcomes as the Washington Post reported in today's paper.

I wonder how the baseball teams and wind generation companies managed without Al Gore, Congress and whoever becomes President telling them what to do.